Last year, the NL West was
horrible, with only the Padres finishing above .500, and they were
just 82-80. There is not much pitching in this division as you will
see in this report. In most cases, there is one very good starter in
each rotation, but then a lot of question marks and uncertainty.
Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy are both top-notch, and
Jason Schmidt and Matt Morris have been in the past.
There are some very high ceiling prospects.
Arizona Diamondbacks
SP
Brandon Webb
26 year old Webb
has been very good and very consistent in all three of his
seasons in the big leagues. Last year, Webb showed the kind of
pitcher that he is. He added another 20+ innings from the
previous season to 229. He walked just 2.3 per nine innings
after having that number at over 5 in 2004. Webb, with a great
sinkerball, is an extreme groundball pitcher. He had 4.34 ground
balls per fly ball. Webb was able to win 14 games a year ago
with a poor offense. As the D-Backs bring up their impressive
group of prospects, Webb should really be coming into his own,
making him a great keeper pick.
SP
Russ Ortiz
"Ortiz has always
won a lot of games, which is amazing because he walks so many
hitters and doesn't really strike many out. The Diamondbacks won't
score so many runs, so I don't expect much from Ortiz." That is what
I wrote about Ortiz last year at this time. What did he do? Well
first, injury caused him to make just 22 starts. He walked 65
and struck out 46 hitters in 115 innings. Opponents hit .313 off
of him. Those are the things that make a pitcher go 5-11 with a
6.89 ERA. Honestly, there is little reason to believe that he
will be much better. Sure, he should bring down his Milton-esque
ERA some, and he could pick up a couple more wins with better
offensive support, but he is not a very good pitcher.
SP
Orlando Hernandez
El Duque is now
(supposedly) 36 years old. He has not made more than 22 starts
in a season since 2000. He is frequently hurt as well. Last
year, he was given a lot of credit for helping the White Sox
pitchers. He must have helped them with words, because his
performance certainly was nothing to emulate. In 128.1 innings,
he went 9-9 with a 5.12 ERA. As per usual, he did well in his
few opportunities in the playoffs, but he is not a guy that you
would want on your fantasy team.
SP Miguel
Batista
Batista returns
to being a starter after spending the last year as the closer
for the Blue Jays. It is hard to believe that he is already 35
years old. Of course, he did make his big league debut in 1992
with the Pirates. Last year, he went 5-8 with a 4.10 ERA. He
recorded 31 saves in 39 opportunities. He wasn't really the
closer type though. He does not record many strikeouts which can
make him quite hittable. But he has the durability to start and
throw nearly 200 innings. After Webb, Batista is probably the
team's best starter.
SP
Brad Halsey/Claudio Vargas
Halsey is a
pitching prospect that the Yankees sent to the D-Backs in the
Randy Johnson trade. The Yankees touted him which, of course,
means that he was vastly overrated. That is usually the case.
But then again, Halsey is just 25 years old. Last year with
Arizona, he went 8-12 with a decent 4.61 ERA. He doesn't
strikeout many at all, but on the positive, he walks about half
of that number. If he can find a way to get his opponent batting
average down from .300 to .270, he could be worthy of picking.
Now, if you want to think that because Vargas is now 27 years
old, he may have a breakout season, good luck! Last year, Vargas
went 9-9, but his ERA was 5.24. His WHIP was 1.46. His walks and
strikeout numbers are decent, but not spectacular. If he can
make 32 starts, he still could get double-digit wins.
Closer
Brandon Medders
The 26 year old
made came up from AAA and made 27 relief appearances for the Snakes.
In his 30.1 innings, he struck out 31. That is consistent with
his AAA numbers where he struck out 44 in 36.1 innings. The lone
problem I see is that he also walked 18 down there, which is
rather high. Such a hard thrower has a chance to be a good
closer for the Diamondbacks if he wins the job.
One 2 Watch
Brandon Lyon
Some may most
remember Lyon as the "closer" on the Red Sox 2003
Closer-by-Committee attempt that did not work. He got nine
saves, but in just 12 attempts. Last year, after missing most of
2004 with injury, Lyon earned the Diamondbacks closer job and
did just enough in it to be considered good. Through 32 games,
he saved 14 games in 15 save chances. However, that hid his 0-2
with a 6.44 ERA season. At that time though, he was hurt again
and missed the rest of the season. If Medders struggles to
close, it is possible that Lyon could be the closer. Or, don't
be surprised if Mr Jennie Finch, Casey Daigle, gets a shot too.
Colorado Rockies
SP
Jason Jennings
Jennings has
been OK. His 5.03 career ERA may not look good, but for Denver,
it is adequate. For the most part, there are no Rockies starters
that you want to draft too high. Jennings was hurt last year and
only made 22 starts, that makes him less desirable too.
SP
Jeff Francis
The 2004
Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year had a decent
first full season. He made 33 starts for the Rockies and went
14-12. That looks good, but his ERA was 5.68, not good! He only
strikes out six per nine innings, and walks about halfo that. He
is probably the best Rockies starter, but again, don't take him
too early.
SP
Aaron Cook
Cook missed
half of 2004 and came back late last season after a very serious
surgery that saves his life. He came back and went 7-2 with a
3.67 ERA. Very good numbers. But, he strikes out very few (2.6
per nine in 2005), and walks some. For his career, he has more
walks than strikeouts. It all pretty much says not to expect
anything near what he did last year from Cook.
SP
Josh Fogg
Fogg is one of
those pitchers that teased you into believing he can be good.
Last year for the Pirates, he was 6-11 with a 5.11 ERA. Not
good! He strikes out just one hitter every other inning, and
walks too many. He gives up too many hits. Basically, don't
expect a lot from Fogg in 2006.
SP
Byung-Hyun Kim
It is hard to
believe that Kim is still just 27 years old as he enters his 8th
big league season. He is one starter in this staff that can
strike out a batter. He doesn't strikeout out as many as his
early relief days, but he is adequate. That said, he has given
up a lot of big home runs in his time, and playing at Coors does
not help that!
Closer
Brian Fuentes
Fuentes came
out of nowhere last year. He pitched in 78 games. In 74.1
innings, he struck out 91, very good numbers. He was a member of
Team USA in the WBC. Last year, he recorded 31 saves for the
Rockies. Jose Mesa was brought in as a set up man, but we'll
see.
One 2 Watch
Chin-Hui Tsao
At this time
last year, Tsao was supposed to be the team's closer, but he was
hurt after just ten games. Is he healthy and can he help the
bullpen. We shall see.
Los Angeles Dodgers
SP
Odalis Perez
In 2004, Perez
was just 7-6, but he had a nice 3.26 ERA. Last year, he was just
7-8, but it was a different story. His ERA was up to 4.56. He
also only made 19 starts due to injury. So, it is a big season
for Perez to reclaim his reputation.
SP
Derek Lowe
What a strange
year 2005 must have been for Lowe, on and off the field. On the
field, he was just 12-15, but he did have a very respectable
3.61 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He is still getting nearly three
groundouts to every fly out and strikes out about six per nine
innings. With the Dodgers (supposed) improved offense, Lowe's
W-L record should be much improved if even he can keep his other
numbers about the same.
SP
Brad Penny
At 6-4 and 250
pounds, one would expect that Penny would be more durable. He
missed time in 2004, and although he started 29 games for the
Dodgers last year, he only compiled 175.1 innings. He had an
average 3.90 ERA and a decent 1.29 WHIP, but his record was just
7-9. I would think that the 27 year old Penny would want to find
a way to be more efficient with his pitches so that he can pitch
more innings.
SP Brett
Tomko
The 32 year old
Tomko somehow keeps getting jobs. Last year, he made 29 starts
(32 appearances) for the Giants, but at one point, he was
removed from the rotation. Only injury to other pitchers kept
him starting, and he wasn't good. He went 8-15 with a 4.48 ERA
and 1.37 WHIP. He did throw 191.2 innings though. Maybe the
thinking is that he'll get better in Chavez Ravine, which is
possible of course. I'll believe it when I see it.
SP
Jae Seo
The 28 year old
Seo has really been the odd man out for the Mets the past three
seasons. When given an opportunity, he has been adequate. The
Mets sent him to the Dodgers, in part, to make room for Aaron
Heilman in the rotation. In 14 starts for the Mets a year ago,
he did go 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA, so with their increased offense
in 2006, you would think they would finally have just given Seo
a job. But no, and I think he could do well for the Dodgers too.
He did very well for Team Korea in the WBC.
Closer
Eric Gagne
It should be
interesting to see what Gagne is capable of in 2006. He missed
most of 2005 with arm problems. That said, when he did pitch, he
was still dominant. Counting his 14 games pitched in 2006, his
K-Rate the past four seasons have been 12.5, 15.0, 12.5, 14.9.
That is dominance. So to me, it is all about being healthy
because he still has it!
One 2 Watch
Chad Billingsley
21 year old
Billingsley was the Dodgers first round pick out of high school
in 2003, and now he is the next big thing. Many analysts believe
he is very nearly ready. He spent all of 2005 at AA where he
went 13-6 with a 3.51 ERA. In 146 innings pitched, he struck out
162 (10 per nine) and walked just 50. He will likely start the
season at AAA and see how that goes, but don't be surprised to
see him in LA soon!
San Diego Padres
SP
Jake Peavy
There is Johan
Santana, and then there is everybody else when it comes to
fantasy baseball pitchers. However, I have Peavy rated #2
overall among pitchers. Why? I don't know. However, the last two
years the 24 year old Peavy has been excellent. In 2004, he went
15-6 with a 2.27 ERA. In 166.1 innings, he struck out 173. Last
year, he went 13-7 and had a 2.88 ERA. In 203 innings, he struck
out 216. I love the strikeout totals. I love that he is 24 years
old. I don't know what there is not to like!
SP
Chris Young
I know I am in
the minority, but when the Padres got Young, Adrian Gonzalez and
Termell Sledge for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka, I thought the
Padres definitely got the better of that deal! Last year with
the Texas Rangers, Young started 31 games. He went 12-7, and had
a very good 4.26 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Those may not seem like
great numbers, but they are very good for playing in Texas. The
6-10, 260 pound, 26 year old righty struck out about 7.5 hitters
per nine innings which is very good. And now he is going to a
pitcher's ballpark!
SP
Shawn Estes
33 year old
Estes enters his 12th big league season. The first seven of
those were with the Giants and he was a very decent, or at least
average pitcher. Since 2001, he is yet to post an ERA under
4.80! But he did have that ERA last year for the Diamondbacks.
He made just 21 starts for them though due to injury. It was be
interesting to see how he comes back, and if he can even post a
league average ERA. That said, Petco Park may help him some!
SP
Woody Williams
39 year old
WIlliams was a very good pitcher for the Cardinals for about 2
1/2 years. He wasn't too good before that, and the last two
years have been rough. Last year, he went 9-12 with a 4.85 ERA.
He is somewhat of a flyball pitcher which should help him. I am
just wondering if he isn't done. He threw just 160+ innings last
year despite making 28 starts.
SP
Chan Ho Park
Park was one of
the stories for Team Korea in the WBC. He had three saves and a
couple of Wins for the team that started the tournament 6-0.
From 1997 to 2001, with the Dodgers, Park was one of the
league's better starters. Taking out a bad 1999 season, he a sub
3.75 ERA in five out of six seasons. And then he went to the
Rangers and in 3 1/2 years there, he never posted an ERA under
5.46, plus he just could not stay healthy. Last year, he was
12-8 with a 5.74 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Most would assume he did
well with the Padres, but his ERA was actually lower with the
Rangers. He should be much improved though in 2006.
Closer
Trevor Hoffman
OK, did anyone
really think he was going to leave San Diego to play in
Cleveland? Of course he was staying in southern California! I
happen to think that Hoffman is the most underrated closer in
big league history. That changeup makes him dominant. In the
last ten years, Hoffman has had an ERA above 3.00 just one time.
In that time, he has averaged 42 saves a year! He is 38 years
old and was 1-6, but his numbers that matter were good.
One 2 Watch
Tim Stauffer/Dewon
Brazelton
Stauffer was
the team's #1 pick in 2003 (4th overall). He made 14 starts for
the team in 2005. However, he went 3-6 with a 5.33 ERA. In 81
innings, he struck out just 49 and walked 29. He was just sent
back down to minor league camp, but he could resurface at some
time during the season. Brazelton came to the team from Tampa
where the 2001 #1 pick really struggled. A change of scenery,
better control and a good pitcher's ballpark may make him a
decent pitcher.
San Francisco Giants
SP Jason Schmidt
Schmidt missed
time at the beginning of the 2005 season. He never really got
back to the old self that he had been for the previous
three-plus seasons. He went 12-7 with a very average 4.40 ERA.
His WHIP was 1.42 and his strikeouts dropped below one per
inning (still 8.6 per nine). At 33, it is possible, probably
even likely, that Schmidt will rebound and come back, but there
certainly is plenty of risk with him now.
SP
Matt Morris
Because of
those concerns, the Giants went out and went hard after former
Cardinal Matt Morris. The big righty went 14-10 with a 4.11 ERA
for the Cards a year ago. For his career, he is now 101-62. Of
course, much of that is the byproduct of some very good offense
around him. However, if he can keep the ball in the park, he
should be a huge asset to the Giants roster.
SP
Noah Lowry
The 25 year old
was the Rangers 19th round pick in 1999 out of high school. He
made four appearances out of the bullpen in 2003. He came up at
the end of the 2004 season and went 6-0 with a 3.82 ERA. Last
year was his first full season and he went 13-13 with a very
solid 3.78 ERA. He surpassed 200 innings. He struck out about
7.6 per nine innings. Lowry is left-handed and looks like he
could be a very good pitcher for years.
SP
Matt Cain
In January, I
ranked Matt Cain as the #1 Impact Rookie
Pitcher in 2006. Here is much of what I wrote about him:
Cain was drafted by the
Giants in the first round (25th overall) in 2005 out of his
Tennessee high school. In 2004, he combined to go 13-5 with a
2.67 ERA. In 158.2 innings, he struck out 161 hitters. At just
age 20, Cain started 2005 at AAA Frisco. There, he went 10-5
with a 4.39 ERA. In 145.2 innings, he struck out 178 hitters. He
did still walk 73 batters as well, something he will need to
improve. He received The Call late in the season and made seven
starts for the Giants. He went 46.1 innings and struck out 30
and walked 19. Those are not good peripherals, but Cain has the
'stuff' needed to make it big.
SP
Brad Hennessey
Another young
pitcher the Giants are counting on, Hennessey was the team's
first round pick in 2001 out of college. He went 2-2 in seven
big league starts in 2004. Last year, he threw 118.1 innings
over 21 starts. He went 5-8 with a 4.64 ERA. HE struck out less
than 5 per nine innings. Hennessey is clearly a notch below the
previous two pitching prospects, but could still be very good.
Closer
Armando Benitez
The 33 year old
went 2-3 last year with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. These are
not good numbers for a closer at all. Of course, the last time
Benitez had an ERA over 3.80 was in 1995. In 30 games last year,
he saved 19 and blew four chances. The Giants should have more
chances for him in 2006.
One 2 Watch
Merkin Valdez
Valdez is
frequently and probably fairly compared to the Twins JD Durbin.
Once a bright, shiny prospect, Valdez was never able to find the
strike zone. Like Durbin, however, Valdez is still very young.
He is just 23 years old. He could start, however, there is talk
of him moving into the closer's role.
So, lets get going on some analysis. If you have any comments,
arguments, agreements, questions or anything, please
feel free to e-mail me.
When this project is complete, I would like to put together a
Mailbag issue with many of those comments.
Roger is back today. He has
another major league report today as he was in attendance at the
Twins/Red Sox game yesterday afternoon. Many of you may have watched
it on ESPN2, with the excellent Buck Martinez in the booth. If only
ESPN could get rid of Jeff Brantley! Man, that guy is tough to
listen to! Here was Roger's day in Ft. Myers.
Hello Seth,
Another great day for baseball. Considering that they were
playing the Red Sox, the stadium was full (7,729 attendance) and
it took about an hour to get into the stadium...so we missed
most of the pre-game workouts. Cindi Alpert sang the National
Anthem. I thought she had a nice accent, Bon corrected me and
told me she was just jazz'n it up. Anyway, she was both great
looking and sang very well. The game time temp was 86 degrees
with a partial overcast and a few showers developing shortly
before the end of the game...compared with 45 in Boston and 35
in the Twins Cities and apparently light snow.
The BoSox started nearly all their starters with Clement on
the hill. The Twins countered with mostly reserves and guys
trying to make the team with Kyle Lohse pitching. Lohse went 5
innings, allowing 3 hits, no walks, 2 strikeouts and no runs.
He started with two 1-2-3 innings allowing a leadoff single to
Coco Crisp who was later retired when Ortiz grounded into a
double play, 1-6-3. He ran into a bit of a problem in the 4th,
when he allowed two hits, however, got Ortiz to ground into a
second DP on a very nice play by Morneau, 3-6-3. His final
inning was the 5th which he got out of 1-2-3, however, Youkilis
hit a hard shot to center that Torii put away. Great seeing him
appear much more confident...could this be his break out
year?
The Twins got on the board in the 1st when LRod hit a nice
line drive to left center, proceeded to second on a single up
the middle by White. LRod scored from second when Morneau hit
an outside pitch to left field with 2 outs. LRod was the
offensive player of the game getting the single and scoring in
the first, a K in the third, groundout to 1st in the 4th, a walk
in the 6th and a single up the middle in the 8th driving in
Torres with the eventual game winner with 2 outs. Perhaps an
indication of their plans to keep him was that he stayed in the
game, moving to 1B after Morneau was taken out in the 6th.
Jason Kubel started in left field. When running after a
long foul ball early, it didn't appear that he was moving real
fast. He didn't limp at any time, and when he went from 1st
to 3rd on a hit-and-run in the 4th, he appeared to be running
very well. He displayed good discipline several times
throughout the game, he really does have a very good eye at the
plate! Offensively, he didn't have a great game, grounding out
4-3 in the 2nd, getting a walk and eventually scoring after the
hit-and-run in the 4th, and a real shot/line drive to deep
center that was caught in the 5th. But that last out was an
indication that he will be an excellent hitter at some
point...although it appears he may be pressing a bit and needs
to relax.
Andres Torres K'd in his first three at bats, then executed
an excellent bunt past the pitcher for a single and got hit by a
pitch in the 8th. Following the HBP, he stole second and
scored on LRod's single. He has excellent speed and can really
sky, as he showed when he went up over the fence next to the
bullpen in right field for a foul ball...didn't get it but he
was really off the ground.
Other highlights were Wooten's homer in his first at bat
after he replaced White in the 6th. Players of interest
included a new shortstop in the 7th. At first glance, I thought
it was Tommy Watkins, but he looked smaller and wore #80.
Bobbled his first grounder a bit, however, got the out. Later
learned it was Alexi Casilla. He came to bat in the 8th and
grounded to about two steps to the third baseman's left.
The third baseman made a normal play, then hurried his throw a
bit with Casilla and the ball getting there in a virtual
tie...although he was called out. I didn't learn much about
Casilla in these first couple innings other than he can
absolutely fly.
Was also good seeing Steve Tolleson playing the last few
innings at second (with LRod moving to 1st). Didn't look out of
place defensively. Looked nervous in his only at bat, lifting a
soft fly to medium centerfield for an out.
That's about it for another day from Spring Training,
especially with a nice 4-3 win over the cross-town BoSox. Only
about a week and a half left...and still lots of decisions to
make.
Roger
Any thoughts on the
Twins minor leagues, or do you have any specific things that you
would like Roger to look for at the minor or major league camp, let him know by
leaving some Comments below, or Send
me an e-mail.
Thursday was
a very good day for Chris Coste in many respects. In the
middle innings, he replaced 1B Ryan Howard, who hit his 10th
homer of the spring. Most importantly, he got two at bats and was
2-2
with a run and an RBI. The second single drove in All Star
shortstop Jimmy Rollins to give the Phillies a short-lived
lead in their 9-8 loss to the Tigers. Secondly, OF Chris Roberson
played the whole game in LF and went 0-5.
Coste is now 14-29 on the
spring. He is hitting .483/.516/.862 with two doubles, three homers
and nine RBI.
I hate to be at all negative,
but as I mentioned yesterday, there is talk that the team is looking
to add a veteran fifth outfielder. In the Boston newspapers, there
was talk that the Phillies may have some interest in former Twins OF
Dustan Mohr. Mohr signed with the Red Sox with a good shot at
being their fifth outfielder, but now that they acquired Wily Mo
Pena, Mohr is unlikely to make the roster and does not want to
play for Pawtucket.
From the
Courier Post Online Phillies blog entries:
***Not sure why the Phillies haven't yet committed to Chris
Coste, the 33-year-old refugee from "Bull Durham" who is, as
they used to say, hitting the cover off the ball.
...
If he flames out early, you cut him. If he contributes, it's a
great story--one custom-made for this "Rocky"-worshipping
region...
I was just searching the web
last night and found this
Comment from The Baseball Think Factory. It was posted by
Alan Keiper the day after the Phillies signed Alex Gonzalez:
This is a terrific signing, just
as long as the National League starts awarding booby prizes for
the team who can accumulate the greatest number of crappy
infielders. I eagerly await seeing the Phils' best third
baseman, Chris Coste, play another season in Scranton.
You never know what you're
going to find when you use Google. I found the Phillies stud 2B
Chase Utley has his own MYSPACE.com page! Interesting stuff!
And finally, the
BJ Hess Blog has
pictures of the Twins/Phillies game from last week. He even got
a picture of Chris Coste's hit!
OK, one more thing... here is
the
1995 Concordia baseball page. Be sure
to check out
Coste's Statistics Page.
Any Thoughts on Coste, please
e-mail me. If anyone
out there has known Chris, played with or against him, please
e-mail me.
Thanks!