Friday, March 11, 2005

Twins Notes

Former Twins

 

FANTASY PERSPECTIVE:

American League West Pitchers

Over the course of the past few weeks I have discussed the hitters of baseball, and over the next couple of weeks, I will be providing a team-by-team look at many of the major league pitchers from a fantasy baseball perspective. I want to do this for a couple of reasons. First, I love fantasy baseball and love discussing what I think of certain players. Second, I know that many people who take the time to read baseball sites like this one participate in fantasy baseball leagues as well.

However, I do understand not everyone gets into fantasy sports, and that’s OK too. I do not think that my "analysis" will be too "statty" so it should be enjoyable for any baseball fan to read.

Another point to mention before getting started is that there are many forms of fantasy baseball. There are the traditional rotisserie leagues, 5x5 leagues, head-to-head, simulation, keeper leagues, American League Only, National League only and many more. Most leagues probably vary in subtle ways. I am not going to try to analyze for any specific variety. I will just give my opinions on the players. When I project a round-range where the player could be drafted, it will be based on a 30 round major league draft.

If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail me.

Disclaimer: What you read below are simply my opinions. Obviously I have no knowledge of what will happen in the 2005 season, so please take the information for what it is worth (fun). Also, these opinions are subject to change as spring training approaches. All players listed are either projected starters, or starters based on my opinion. I will try to project where each player could be drafted, assuming a 30 round draft.

If you've missed the first four pieces to this project, check them out here:

Part 1 - American League Central Hitters
Part 2 - American League East Hitters
Part 3 - American League West Hitters
Part 4 - National League Central Hitters

Part 5 - National League East Hitters

Part 6 - National League West Hitters

Part 7 - American League Central Pitchers

Part 8 - American League East Pitchers

PART 9:

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST PITCHERS

Looks like the Angels have the best pitching in the division now, and there really is no question about that. Their bullpen can be dominant and their starters are all solid. The A’s broke up the Big 3 and are attempting to win with three rookie pitchers and Barry Zito is the rotation’s elder statesman at age 26! The Mariners were awful last year and they have a rotation of guys with something to prove.

 
So, let’s get going on some analysis. If you have any comments, arguments, agreements, questions or anything, please feel free to e-mail me. When this project is complete, I would like to put together a Mailbag issue with many of those comments.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

SP – Bartolo Colon

After two quality seasons, Colon really struggled last year. But again, run support is a beautiful thing! In 2004, Colon had an ERA of 5.01, and a WHIP approaching 1.4. Yet, he still managed an 18-12 record. It was really a tale of two halves for Colon though. In the first half, he was 6-8 with a 6.38 ERA. But then in the second half, he went 12-4 with a 3.63 ERA. So, which Colon will show up? Well, if he can drop his ERA to 4.00, his defense will be better and the offense will be just as good. If he can pitch 200+ innings, as he has the past four years and six of his seven full seasons, he could win 20 games. Consider him in the 5th round.

SP – Jarrod Washburn

The LaCrosse native, Washburn had an off year in 2003, going 10-15 with a 4.43 ERA. He had a ribcage injury that put him on the disabled list for a couple of months. He made 25 starts and went 11-8 with a 4.64 ERA. He has been the talk of trade rumors the last couple of years, and yet he continues to put up decent numbers. His numbers have been down the last couple of years, but that is because he had ERAs in the low 3’s the two previous years. The 30 year old had made 30 or more starts the previous three seasons and was over 200 innings the previous two. In other words, he is a great #3 pitcher on any staff. However, he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, so his fantasy value drops to somewhere around the 22nd round.

SP – Kelvim Escobar  

Colon had an ERA over 5.00 and got 18 wins. Escobar had an ERA of 3.93 and went 11-12. Doesn’t seem fair and because of it, I think Escobar is overlooked. He has been a solid pitcher no matter what role he has been in. Last year was his first year as only a starter in many years, yet he started 33 games and pitched 208.1 innings. He had 191 strikeouts. Does anyone else find it interesting that not one of the 91 runs he gave up last year were unearned? Anyway, I think Escobar is a solid fantasy pitcher, worth taking by the 10th round.

SP – John Lackey

Now, if you compare the “other” numbers or Ramon Ortiz to those of Jarrod Washburn, you would think that Washburn would have had a better record. That wasn’t the case. Ramon Ortiz’s WHIP was 1.51. His ERA was 5.20. He even struck out one hitter less. Somehow, Ortiz ended 2003 with a 16-13 record. I don’t know what it is, but Ortiz has always found a way to win. In 2002, he was 15-9. In each of his four seasons in the Angels rotation, he is over .500 (for a career 54-42 record). Consider drafting Ortiz in the 17th round.

SP – Paul Byrd

Byrd had a strong year for the Royals in 2002 going 17-11 with a 3.94 ERA. Unfortunately, he had arm surgery and missed all of 2003 and most of the first half of 2004. He came back with the Braves last year and made 19 starts. I was impressed with how well he came back. He went 8-7 with a 3.94 ERA. Not great, but enough to keep his team in any game. Coming off of that surgery, I think that’s impressive. In his 114 innings last year, he struck out over 6 batters per nine innings. That is high for him. I think the 34 year old can keep his ERA close to 4.00, and if he does, he is still worth a 19th round pick.  

Closer – Francisco Rodriguez

Troy Percival is gone to Detroit and the Angels now have their best pitcher closing out games. It is hard to believe that K-Rod is still just 23 years old. Last year, Rodriguez was 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA. He also had 12 saves. In 69 games, he threw 84 innings. He struck out an amazing 133 hitters (that’s 13.2 per nine innings!). His WHIP is 1.00 and opponents hit just .172 off him a year ago. The Angels will win a lot of games and K-Rod will be the closer, that means a lot of saves with some great ‘other’ numbers. He is one of the Top 5 closers in my mind and depending on the type of league your in, could be a late-second round pick.

Reliever – Brendan Donnelly

33 year old Donnelly has been one of the more dominant middle relievers during his three year career. Unfortunately at the beginning of last year, he was having nose bleed problems and didn’t pitch until mid-June. But when he came back, he was dominant as ever. He threw 42 innings in 40 games and was 5-2 with a 3.00 ERA. He had an impressive 56 strikeouts, which equates to 12 Ks per nine innings. Again, depending on the value of middle relief in your league, Donnelly is probably not worth drafting, but if things like Ks and WHIP matter, he’s worth taking late.

One 2 Watch – Scot Shields

To me, Scot Shields is comparable to the Twins Johan Santana. OK, comparing anyone to Johan isn’t exactly fair, however, hear me out. In 2003, he pitched in 44 games and started 13. He was 5-6 but had an ERA of 2.85. Last year, he pitched in 60 games, all out of the bullpen. He threw 105.1 innings. He was 8-2 with a 3.33 ERA. For the first time, he had more strikeouts than innings pitched. The reason for the comparison is just that he has been very successful throwing a lot of innings out of the ‘pen. I think he could be a good starter if needed. But, he’s great in his current role too. Still probably not worth drafting.

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – The bullpen, specifically Rodriguez.

The Bad – There really isn’t anything.

The Questions – Will Colon pitch two good halves?? Can Byrd and Washburn stay healthy and be successful? How will K-Rod respond to his full-time closer gig?

 

Oakland A’s

SP - Barry Zito 

With Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder gone via trades, Zito is the lone member of The Big 3 remaining. He is also, at age 26, the oldest member of this staff by a couple of years. Zito saw his numbers get worse for the third straight year. Actually, he wasn’t very good last year. He was 11-11 with a 4.48 ERA. He won the Cy Young in 2002 when he was 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA. In 2003, he was 14-12 with a 3.30 ERA. So, the drop last year was significant. So, what will he do in 2005? We know that he will make 34 or 35 starts and will likely throw about 220 innings. He will have to throw more strikes next year to make his great curveball more effective. I think he’s worth a 10th round pick.

SP – Rich Harden

Harden is probably the best pitcher in the A’s rotation, and it could be argued that he was during the second half of 2004. The prized 23 year old Canadian righty with the triple-digit fastball came up and struggled in 2003. And he really started a little slow last year. For the year, he went 11-7 with a 3.99 ERA. Before the All-Star break he was 3-5 with a 4.52 ERA. After the break, he was 8-2 with a 3.49 ERA. I would expect even better things in 2005. Be ready to take him by the 7th round.

SP – Danny Haren

Haren is a guy that I thought the Twins should have tried to trade Jacque Jones to last summer. The 24 year old righty was incredible at AA in 2003 going 6-1 with a 0.82 ERA before moving up to AAA and then to the big leagues where he went 3-7 with a 5.08 ERA. Last year, he split the season between AAA and the Cardinals. At Memphis, he was 11-4 with a 4.15 ERA. With the Cardinals, he was 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA make 5 starts in his 14 appearances. Haren was one of the guys the A’s grabbed in the Mark Mulder deal. To me, he is major league ready. In the minors, he has been a strikeout-an-inning guy. That hasn’t happened yet in the big leagues, but it should this year. Take Haren in the 20th round. 

SP – Joe Blanton 

Blanton and Nick Swisher were a couple of the A’s Moneyball picks. Swisher out of Ohio State and Blanton out of Kentucky. The 24 year old went 11-8 with a 4.19 ERA last year with the A’s AAA affiliate in Sacramento. He then pitched three games in relief for the A’s. But he will likely get a shot at the rotation. He isn’t a power pitcher and I see him predicting as a 4th starter. So, I wouldn’t take him before the 27th round.

SP – Dan Meyer

The A’s got Meyer from the Braves in the Tim Hudson deal. I think that Meyer could become a star. Maybe not this year, but sometime in the near future. The 23 year old lefty was the Braves first round pick in 2002 out of James Madison. He was good at the Braves two Class A levels in 2003. But 2004 was the year that put Meyer into the top prospect level. He started at AA Greenville where he went 6-3 with a 2.22 ERA. He struck out 86 hitters in 65 innings. He moved up to AAA Richmond where he went 3-3 with a 2.79 ERA. There he struck out 60 in 60.1 innings. He then pitched two games in relief for the Braves without giving up a run in two innings. I think that he projects to be a #2, or even a #1 pitcher because of his strikeout abilities. I actually am leaning toward picking him as my choice for 2005 AL Rookie of the Year. Take him in the 21st round.

Closer – Octavio Dotel

Dotel was one of the most dominant set up men in baseball for four seasons. Then last year, he moved into the closer’s role. It didn’t go well, but it wasn’t as bad as many people think. In 32 games in Houston, he had 14 saves (in 17 chances), but had a 3.12 ERA. He was traded to the A’s where he really struggled more. He went 6-2 with 22 saves, but still blew 6 opportunities. I would expect that in 2005 he will get back to his high level. And, don’t be surprised if he is eventually traded to the Cubs! So, I wouldn’t worry about taking him in the 13th round.

Reliever – Huston Street  

2004 was a whirlwind year for Street. After three seasons at the University of Texas (where he was 18-3 with 41 saves), he was drafted 40th overall by the A’s in last June’s draft. He started in the Midwest League and went 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 4 saves in 9 games. He moved up to AA Midland where he threw in 10 games and was 1-0 with 3 saves and a 1.65 ERA. From there, he moved up to AAA Sacramento where he didn’t give up a run and recorded a save. There was talk of him coming up to Oakland, but they went with the safe, cautious route, which is probably the right decision. I would guess he will start the season at AAA, but if that goes well, the A’s will trade Dotel and move Street into the closer’s job. Consider taking him in the late rounds.

One 2 Watch – Juan Cruz

Juan Cruz and Mark Prior were spoken of on the same level prior to the 2002 season. The last couple of years, Cruz had really struggled with the Cubs and pitched primarily in relief. In 2004, he was with the Braves and really pitched well out of the bullpen. He pitched 72 innings in 50 games. He was 6-2 with a 2.75 ERA. He struck out 70 hitters. He has struck out almost a hitter an inning throughout his career. So, what will role will Cruz have with the A’s? Will he be given a shot at the rotation, or will he stay in the bullpen? Don’t draft him.

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Harden and the futures of Haren and Meyer

The Bad – just the youth of the rotation.

Question Marks – Will Dotel rebound from a poor 2004? Will Harden become the ace? Which direction will Barry Zito’s numbers go this year? How good can the three young guns be (Haren, Blanton and Meyer)?

 

Seattle Mariners

SP – Jamie Moyer

Last year, I wondered when the 41 year old Moyer would finally hit a bump in the road. Well, last year he hit a big bump. He was 7-13 with a 5.21 ERA. Now the question has to be is Moyer done, or does he have one more quality season left in that left arm? Personally, I think he’s done, and the fact is, he wasn’t much of a fantasy pitcher before, so take him in the 24th round.

SP – Bobby Madritsch 

The Mariners grabbed the 29 year old Madritsch out of the Northern League before the 2003 season. He reported to AA and went 13-7 with a 3.63 ERA. Last year, he started at AAA Tacoma and went 5-2 with a 3.75 ERA. He moved up to the Mariners mid-season and made 11 starts (4 relief appearances too). He went 6-3 with a 3.27 ERA. He struck out 6 per 9 innings, but I do think that number might go up a little bit. I like Madritsch and think that you could get him in the 22nd round, and consider it a possible steal.

SP – Joel Pineiro

Pineiro has been a sleeper pick throughout much of his career. In 2003, he actually had a very good year. He made 32 starts and went 16-11 with a 3.87 ERA. Unfortunately last year he missed a lot of the season because of a sore elbow. He made 21 starts and was just 6-11 with a 4.67 ERA. But, he is still just 26 years old and if he is healthy, expect him to be vastly improved. Consier taking him in the 16th round.

SP – Gil Meche

Meche is also still just 26 years old. He had Tommy John surgery three years ago and came back well in 2003. Last year, he split the season between AAA Tacoma and the Mariners. He wasn’t particularly good at either place. His ERA was over 5 at AAA. With the M’s he made 23 starts and went 7-7 with a 5.01 ERA. He is a decent strikeout pitcher. Even in a bad year, he had about 7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a risk, but with the Mariners improved offense, maybe he’s worth a 24th round pick.

SP – Ryan Franklin

In previous years, Franklin had good ‘other’ numbers like ERA and WHIP, etc., but for some reason, he didn’t have a good record. Well, last year, he had a 4.90 ERA and a WHIP of 1.42 and opponents hit .285 against him. You think I’m going to say that he had a good record, right? No, he was 4-16. But, he did make 32 starts for the Mariners and ate up 200.1 innings. For that, he deserves a spot in the rotation. But from a fantasy perspective, I would wait until the 28th round to draft him.

Closer – Eddie Guardado

Everyday Eddie was finally unable to pitch every day. The Ms closer threw 45.1 innings in 41 games and was 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA. He had 18 saves, a WHIP of 0.99 and opponents hit just .194 off of him. He did have 7 blown saves though. And then his arm was hurt, and he missed the rest of the season. There was talk that he was going to have surgery and miss all of this season, but he decided to rehab it and hope he’ll be able to throw all season. He is a huge risk, so wait until the 20th round to grab the 34 year old lefty.

Reliever – Shigetoshi Hasegawa

Hasegawa has been a solid reliever for the Ms the previous two seasons. Last year, like many of the Mariners, Hasegawa had his worst season. He was 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA. However, he is better than that. And, if Guardado misses some time, Hasegawa would be in line to grab some saves. That makes taking him in the 29th round, especially if you have Guardado.

One 2 Watch – Rafael Soriano

After coming up as a top pitching prospect in 2002, Soriano pitched out of the bullpen in 2003. He pitched in 40 games and went 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA. It was a stepping stone toward greatness. But then arm problems popped up and Soriano missed most of the 2004 season. He pitched 7 minor league rehab games after pitching just six big league games where he was awful. He was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA. Will he be healthy, and if so, can he get back to the dominant level he was at in 2003? Don’t draft him.

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Possibly Madritsch.

The Bad – everything else.

The Question Marks – Is Moyer done? Can Franklin, Meche and Pineiro all take a step forward? Will Eddie Guardado be healthy and effective?

 

Texas Rangers

SP – Kenny Rogers

Kenny Rogers is now 40 years old. He did in Texas what he did with the Twins in 2003, just enough to keep his team in games. He wasn’t good. Yeah, he was 18-9, but his ERA was 4.76. His WHIP was 1.48. Opponents hit .292 off of him. But he still made 35 starts. He still threw 211.2 innings. He is a battler, and deserves a lot of credit for that. He is an “ace” in name, though no longer in ability. The fact that he is probably the Rangers best pitcher says a lot! Take him in the 27th round.  

SP – Ryan Drese

28 year old Drese had ERAs of 6.85 and 6.55 the previous two years. He had always been hit hard. And then in 2004, suddenly, he was a quality pitcher. He made 33 starts for the Rangers and was 14-10 with a 4.20 ERA. He threw 207.2 innings and did well. That said, he struck out just 98 hitters (4.35 K per 9 innings). I just don’t see a repeat performance coming from Drese. He is hittable and doesn’t have a strikeout pitch. But, he is still young, and maybe he can be an average pitcher. Consider taking him in the 23rd round.

SP – R.A. Dickey  

R.A. Dickey is able to do a lot for the Rangers. He pitched in 25 games in 2004, starting 15. He went 6-7 with a 5.61 ERA. Like Drese, Dickey averaged less than 5 strikeouts per 9 innings. He may not be in the rotation and the fact that he might be is another statement about the Rangers staff. However, like the rest of them, Dickey should be considered draftable 1.) if he’s in the rotation and 2.) if you’re in a league where Wins matter a lot. Take him in the 29th round.

SP – Chris Young

25 year old Young started last year at AA and went 6-5 with a 4.48 ERA. He moves up to AAA where he went 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in five starts. That earned him a callup to the Rangers where he made 7 starts. He went 3-2 with a 4.71 ERA. He struck out 27 in 36 innings. Nothing great, but enough to get the team to sign him to a three year deal. Why would they do that, you ask? Well, because the Sacramento Kings offered the 6-10  righty an NBA contract and the Rangers wanted to keep him around. He will be in the rotation, but don’t compare him to a tall pitcher like Randy Johnson. Young hits 93 on the radar gun, with other pitches. Take him in the 24th round.

SP – Juan Dominguez

The 24 year old Dominican right-hander had another very good 2004 season. He started at AA and was 0-0 with a 1.08 ERA in 3 games. He moved up to AAA and went 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 9 starts. He came up to the Rangers and went 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 4 starts. I think that Dominguez is an actual pitching prospect, even for the Rangers. If he gets in the rotation, I can see him being the team’s best pitcher, and I would take a chance on him in the 21st round.

Closer – Francisco Cordero

Cordero has been in the big leagues since 1999, but because he was a middle reliever, he wasn’t known. Suddenly last year he became the team’s closer, and he is very well known and was one of the top 3 closers in the AL last year. He pitched 71.2 innings in 67 games. He went 3-4 with a 44 saves and a 2.13 ERA. He struck out almost 10 per 9 innings. The Rangers offense should put them in a position to win a lot of games, so Cordero should get plenty of save opportunities. Take him by the 6th round.

Reliever – Frank Francisco

25 year old Francisco will be best known for his chair-throwing incident last year in Oakland. But the fact is that he had a very solid year as a reliever that will likely be overlooked. He threw 51.1 innings in 45 games. He went 5-1 with a 3.33 ERA. He struck out 60 (10.5 per 9 innings). He should get better in his second season. But still don’t draft him.

One 2 Watch – Chan Ho Park

2004 was another bad year for Park. He came off the disabled list and made 16 starts. He was 4-7 with a 5.46 ERA. None of his numbers were good. It’s sad because he was a very good starter in his six seasons in LA. He earned a big contract although the amount of his contract was ridiculous. He has $29 million left on his contract and has been so bad that the Rangers are talking about releasing him and just eating that dollar amount. Even if he stays on the team, don’t draft him!

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good – Cordero.

The Bad – Everything. I mean, Kenny Rogers is the ace

The Question Marks – Who will fill out the rotation? How can Drese follow up his ‘good’ year? Can the team get the games to Cordero? Can Juan Dominguez be a solid starter?

 

Well, that is it for Part 9 of my Fantasy Baseball Preview. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. The same format will be used next week when I discuss the National League team’s pitching staffs. Please let me know what you think. Any comments or suggestions would be welcomed! E-mail me.

TWINS NOTES

Any thoughts on the Twins? Please e-mail me.  

 

FORMER TWINS

There was a pretty full schedule of spring training games yesterday. With split squads, that is a big schedule. A lot of former Twins players. On a negative note, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers re-assigned former Twins pitcher (one of the worst in team history) Joe Beimel and OF/1B Brian Buchanan to their minor league camp. Here are how others did:

 

Thursday

And after all that, thank you again very much for stopping by my site. I hope you enjoy what you read, but if you have any questions or comments on anything, please feel free to e-mail me. Have a great weekend!

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