The Duensing Dilemma
A big Happy Holiday to
everyone out there. NO, not that fake, made up holiday, but a much more
important holiday… Happy First Day of Pitchers and Catchers!! No, the Twins don’t
report until Thursday, but several teams are opening their training camps
today! Spring is here… kind of!!
There has been a lot of
debate about which of the six Twins starters should move into the bullpen.
Obviously Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano will be in the starting rotation. Scott Baker is
going to be making $5 million in 2011, so he’ll be in the rotation. Plus, his
predictive numbers in 2010 indicate that he should be better IF he is healthy.
That leaves two spots to be fought for by Nick Blackburn ($3 million), Kevin Slowey ($2.7 million) and Brian Duensing
($0.45 million). By dollars alone, maybe Duensing is
the appropriate choice.
In Friday’s TwinsCentric blog, Parker asked the question, “What role
should Duensing have in ’11?” In it, he made
a very logical, compelling argument for Duensing
being in the bullpen. Looking at the numbers, it is a very fair argument.
Of course, I have the
opposite opinion. I believe that Brian Duensing
should begin the 2011 season in the Twins starting rotation. My reasoning is
because each of the past two seasons, he has been a terrific addition to the
Twins starting staff in the second half of the season. In 2009, he made nine
starts and went 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. In 13 starts in 2010, he
went 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
Are those numbers he can
maintain over the course of a full season? Who knows? I’m just of the opinion that
he has done enough to earn that opportunity. Visibly, I see Duensing
as a pitcher who throws in the low-90s and has good control of the strike zone
with his fastball. He has a good curveball/slider and a good changeup. Although
he is not overpowering, he gets really good sink on his fastball which helped
him to a very high groundball rate. And also, he is left-handed.
The Twins have a lot of
left-handed options in the bullpen to team with Jose Mijares.
None of them have experienced the kind of success in the bullpen in their
careers that Duensing did in his 40 bullpen
appearances in 2010, but the team has options. The Twins seem to really like
their Rule 5 draft pick Scott Diamond. They were willing to DFA Rob Delaney to
claim Dusty Hughes who pitched well against the Twins and apparently has four
good pitches. Chuck James and Phil Dumatrait have
pitched in the big leagues and were acquired on minor league contracts. And
then there is Glen Perkins, who for all his struggles the last two years, has
some good stuff and we have seen him pitch well at times in the past. He is
also out of options.
The bullpen is full of question
marks, and Duensing could help alleviate some of that
if he were in the bullpen. However, I will maintain that because of what he has
done the past two years as a starter, I would rather have him pitch 180 to 200
innings than 60 to 80 inning in 2011.
Just because he starts the
season in the starting rotation doesn’t mean he’ll end up there. Obviously Duensing will have to prove over the season’s first two
months that he deserves to be a starter. A year ago, Nick Blackburn was coming
off of two straight seasons in which he threw 399 total innings and posted ERAs
of 4.05 and 4.03. There was no question that he should be in the Twins starting
rotation, but soon after the All Star break, he was in Rochester. Of course,
when he came back in late August, he pitched seven or more innings in seven out
of his eight starts.
Maybe Duensing
doesn’t profile as a top or even middle of the rotation starter. He doesn’t
have Francisco Liriano or David Price like velocity
or sliders. But that does not mean that he can’t be a good starter. There are
plenty of examples of guys that may not have the greatest stuff, but they have
terrific careers because they know how to succeed with what they have.
Sometimes they even succeed over a long period of time.
I’m not saying that Duensing is the next Cliff Lee. I’m not even guaranteeing
that he will end the season in the Twins rotation. Once the season gets to
July, changes could be made to make the team better for a playoff run. What I
am saying, and what I believe, is that his performance over the past two
seasons, maintainable or not, has been more than enough to put his name, in
pen, in the Opening Day starting rotation alongside Carl Pavano
and Francisco Liriano.
UPDATE –
After writing this, I went to Over The Baggy and in Parker’s OTB Twins Notes, his first
note was, “Ron Gardenhire told Sid
Hartman and Mike Max on WCCO on Sunday that Scott Baker experienced
a setback in his rehab stint following his off-season elbow surgery.”
If that is a setback that
pushes into the regular season, it should make the decision for Duensing to start the season in the rotation even easier.
I’m curious what people think
about this topic. Has Brian Duensing done enough to earn the right to start the
season in the Twins starting rotation, or does he need to do something more?
Feel free to post
your comments here.
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Here are some more blogs and
articles for you to peruse today:
·
Let’s start with
a great series that K-Bro started on
Sunday called Why
Baseball is Better than Football. (Let me count the ways, right?!) Day
1 discusses training camp/spring training. I look forward to following the
series throughout the week!
·
Be sure to read
the rest of the OTB
Twins Notes which along with the Scott Baker setback news also
discusses a plan for Ben Revere/Joe Benson/Aaron Hicks, possible competition
for Alexi Casilla this spring, and more.
·
Aaron Gleeman
asks
if the Twins are giving up on Francisco Liriano.
·
In Roger’s
Weekly Twins Minor League Report, he posted updates on the Australian
Baseball League championship series which Perth won. Luke Hughes and Allan de
San Miguel played a huge role for that team.
·
There is a ton of
great stuff over at Twinkie Town. I assume most of you
already go there daily, but if not, check it out.
·
Puckett’s Pond
takes a look at the Twins
non-roster invitees to spring training. The player that everyone will
be watching is Kyle Gibson, but they brought in a couple of others that have a
chance to contribute to the Twins over the course of the season. I’ve mentioned
Carlos Gutierrez, but I also think that Jeff Bailey and Justin Huber have a
chance to contribute if needed, as do Chuck James, Phil Dumatrait
and maybe even Yorman Bazardo.
·
The
Baseball Outsider takes a look at
the thinness of the shortstop market.
·
Off the Mark
wants your help Predicting the Bullpen.
·
When I got home
from the weekend away, I checked the mail. In it, I found a copy of the FoxSports.com FANTASY baseball magazine.
It is the 2011 Fantasy Baseball &
scout.com Prospect Guide. It will be on newsstands and the cover shows Roy Halladay surrounded by Cliff Lee, Albert Pujols, Carl Crawford and Robinson Cano. I wrote the Twins
minor league content in the magazine which consists of a Top 20 list and a few
paragraphs on the Twins system. I know I have a bunch of products available
right now that people can spend their money on. I feel a little guilty always
posting them, but in this case, I guess I would say that if you’re getting some
Fantasy Baseball magazines anyway, this is a good option. They have bloggers
like myself provide the same information for all 30
major league teams, plus a top 300 prospects lists. That all comes after a ton
of great fantasy baseball information and rankings.
·
I have been told
that many people have started receiving their copies of the Minnesota
Twins Prospect Handbook 2011. If you have not yet ordered a copy, you can
get one here. If you pre-ordered a copy and have not received it yet,
let me know if you still don’t receive it by Tuesday or Wednesday, and I’ll do
some digging. As you do receive yours, please feel free to share your thoughts,
opinions, ideas for future books, and anything else you would like. I welcome
all feedback.
·
Along with my
Twins prospect book, I have also purchased the Baseball
America Prospect Handbook and John Sickels
Prospect Handbook. The Digital Prospect Guide from Project Prospect
is also now available now in either the Video Version or the Text Version. I
can never get enough prospect talk and reading!
·
And finally, I am
going to blatantly steal from the Twins Geek who wrote the following last
Thursday:
One week from today, pitchers and catchers begin
their first workout AND the 2011
Maple Street Press Twins Annual ships, hopefully to you. There’s a good
chance you’ll have it before Jim Thome has a bat in
his hands.
At first, it looks like a 128-page magazine
previewing the baseball season. But unlike anything else you’re buying, it
isn’t half ads. In fact, it doesn’t have any ads. It also isn’t a preview of
every team in the league. It’s JUST the Twins. It is like nothing else you
have ever read in its breadth and depth of coverage of your favorite team.
That’s one reason I’m so proud of it. Nobody else
dares risk something like this. This is our chance to show that a product like
this, created for Twins fanatics, can work. Needless to say, if you’ve been
stopping by this blog all offseason, this magazine is your payoff.
And like this blog, it’s a product of TwinsCentric. Nick, Parker, Seth and I helped arrange and
edit its 19 feature-length stories and player profiles. But unlike our other
products, this is old-school: a collectible with paper and great pictures,
available on your magazine rack in March.
But who wants to wait until March? Not you. All
offseason you’ve been talking about how winter can’t end soon enough. Here’s a
chance to put your money where your mouth is. Enjoy your early spring.
You can find out a LOT more about it here.