Friday, February 10, 2006

Other Stuff

FANTASY PERSPECTIVE:

National League Central Hitters

Good morning everyone! Well, I think I am back. For now! Not everything is fixed. There are still plenty of issues with my computer and my connection, but the service people helped me find a quick way to still be able to post new information. So, I am still hoping to get things figured out, but at least I am still able to bring you the NL Central Hitters projections that I meant to post two days ago. Again, I apologize for the problems and hope that by next week, everything is in perfect order again.

To make up for my missed time, I posted a LOT of "Other Thoughts" down at the bottom, many of which revolve around the Twins. So, be sure to check those out.

Before I get to the Projections, I need to congratulate a couple of people. Mike V, who you may remember as the owner of GuardDog Watches, a great company that you can see at the left of this page. He is also the owner of a company called Banjo Brothers along with Eric Leugers. They make backpacks and messenger bags. Anyway, last night, there was a story on WCCO-TV on their company. The name of the story was "Blogvertising: When Blogs and Advertising Collide." Mike was quoted as saying, "obviously being a startup, didn't have a lot of money. So we started thinking about how we get the word out about the company, and we kind of turned to the blogosphere." Congratulations to Mike, but also congratulations to Stick & Ball Guy whose site was pictured during the story! 

Today, I will dive into the NL Central division hitters in Part 5 of my Fantasy Perspective series. If you would like more detail on why I want to do this series as well as some of the thoughts that go into my 2006 Projections, please click here.

If you have any questions or comments about what I write here, or regarding your league, please e-mail me. If you would be fun, feel free to ask questions or comment on anything down below in the Comments section.

Disclaimer: What you read below are simply my opinions. Obviously I have no knowledge of what will happen in the 2006 season, so please take the information for what it is worth (fun). Also, these opinions are subject to change as spring training approaches. All players listed are either projected starters, or starters based on my opinion.

To this point, I have only done my look at the:

Top 20 Impact Rookie Hitters for 2006

Top 20 Impact Rookie Pitchers for 2006

American League West Hitters

American League Central Hitters

American League East Hitters

National League West Hitters

 

PART 5:

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL HITTERS

This was a division with division between the haves and the have-nots last year. This year, it is probable that five of the six teams will be very competitive. Despite some major losses, the Cardinals have to be the team to beat. Any team with Albert Pujols in its lineup has to be a contender. The Cubs were disappointing last year, but they should be good. The Astros were in the World Series last year without a strong offensive performance, and they have Roy Oswalt. The Reds could totally go either way. Decent offense, no pitching. The Pirates have added a couple of decent, veteran players to go with young pitching. The Brewers finally had a .500 season for the first time in a long time. They continue to bring up more young players and thrust them into key roles. So, let’s get to the analysis. If you have any comments, arguments, agreements, questions or anything, please feel free to e-mail me. When this project is complete, I would like to put together a Mailbag issue with many of those comments.


 Chicago Cubs


C – Michael Barrett

When it comes to catchers in fantasy leagues, it seems that there is Martinez, Mauer, Varitek and then everyone else, but I would have to say that Michael Barrett is at the top of the "everything else" category. He has had 32 doubles and 16 homers both of the last two years. His OPS has been .826 and .824 the last two years. I would project that he will stay in that neighborhood again.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Barrett 126 425 54 124 31  2 15 204  60 40 59  0  0 .292 .353 .480 .833

1B – Derrek Lee

Lee flirted with the NL Triple Crown last year for much of the first half of the season. Although he has been very good for a few years, it was certainly a bust-out season for Lee. After hitting between .270 and .282 the previous five seasons, Lee jumped to .335 last year. I don't see him maintaining that, but I also do not see him dropping all the way down again. After hitting between 21 and 32 homers the previous five seasons, Lee jumped to 46 last year. His OPS had been between .820 and .887 (certainly not bad!), but it jumped to 1.080 last year. It was a remarkable season for Lee. Do I think he is that good? Probably not, but again, there is no reason to think that he will completely fall back to his previous levels either. Oh, and he is a 1B who steals some bases too! 

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Lee    162 595 109 182 44  1 37 339 105 82 116 14  4 .306 .390 .570 .960

2B – Todd Walker/Jerry Hairston

The Cubs spent much of the offseason talking about trading Walker, again. When he plays, he is a decent hitter. He is now 32 years old and last year missed 52 games. Hairston came over in the Sosa deal a year ago, and played some 2B and some LF. It appears that the OF is full, and so is the infield, so it will be interesting to see if he gets much playing time this year, unless the Cubs can find someone to take Walker off their hand.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Walker   124 378 51 107 22  1 11 164  53 31 34  2  0 .283 .337 .434 .771
Hairston  71 215 29  57 11  1  2  76  19 17 27  7  5 .265 .319 .353 .672

3B – Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez proved that he is the real deal last year. He had been inconsistent early in his career, but last year he backed up a magnificent 2004 season by hitting over .300 again. He also had 30 doubles and 31 homers, great numbers considering he missed 39 games late in the season. If he can stay healthy in 2006, I expect him to really have a big season.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Ramirez 153 567 96 175 35  0 38 324 109 52 79  0  0 .309 .367 .571 .938

SS – Ronny Cedeno/Neifi Perez

23 year old Cedeno is an interesting case, to be sure. He did not hit much his first four professional seasons. However, he just crushed the ball early in 2005 with Iowa which earned him a promotion to the Cubs. He was able to hit .300 in 80 at bats. Neifi Perez is coming off of arguably the best season of his ten big league seasons. Yeah, his numbers were a little better in Colorado, but that is what it is. Perez hit .274 with 33 doubles and 9 homers. However, his OPS was still just .681 because his Isolated Discipline was just .024. Perez said he did not mind being the backup, as long as it was Cedeno who was starting. It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Cedeno  126 409 56 109 19  1  7 151  51 29 73  9  4 .267 .315 .369 .684

Perez    81 186 17  45  9  0  3  63  16  5 13  2  2 .242 .262 .339 .600

LF – Matt Murton

Remember when the Twins traded Doug Mientkiewicz to the Cubs for Justin Jones in that four team deal that also included the Red Sox and Expos? Dougie Baseball was then shipped to the Red Sox, and Orlando Cabrera went to the Red Sox, and... Well, the Cubs received Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton from the Red Sox. I was shocked that the Red Sox would have traded Murton who was their first round pick in 2003 out of Georgia Tech. At the time, he was hitting .301 with 16 doubles and 11 homers in the not-so-hitter-friendly Florida State League. Anyway, in 2005, he started at AA, quickly moved up to AAA, and on July 8th, he made his Cubs debut. He would get 140 at bats in 51 games and hit .321/.386/.521 with 7 homers. Murton should be the team's primary left-fielder, but again, you never know how Dusty will play things.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Murton  121 393 55 117 18  1 12 173  57 36 62  5  3 .298 .357 .440 .797

CF – Juan Pierre

The Cubs were able to participate in the Marlins apparent fire sale, acquiring the speedy centerfielder and leadoff hitter they had sought. It did cost them three pitchers though. Pierre is what he is. He is a good on-base guy, however, coming off a bad on-base year at just .326! That is below his career .355. However, it is what he does after getting on base that gets him recognized. He steals a lot of bases. He certainly does not walk, but he slaps and bunts his way to very strong batting averages. He will not hit for much power. However, he should score a lot of runs in that Cubs lineup.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Pierre  162 674 99 201 25  8  2 248  43 56 43 46 14 .298 .352 .368 .720

RF – Jacque Jones

The Twins were finally able to cut ties with Jacque Jones thanks to the Cubs three year, $15 million offer. Had Jason Kubel not torn up his knee the year before, it probably would have happened then. Jones is an interesting case. In 2002 and 2003, he hit .300 but rarely walked. The last two years, he has had Isolated Disciplines around .070, but he has hit just .250. So, maybe he is a hacker and that's just it. Oh, he also still can not hit lefties and should be platooned. However, knowing Dusty Baker, Jones will likely be in the lineup almost every day.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Jones  154 574 87 156 26  2 27 267  84 47 134 16  6 .272 .327 .465 .792

Two 2 Watch – Marquis Grissom/John Mabry

John Mabry has done it all in his career, I think. He has played a number of positions as a fill-in, but he also is a solid enough hitter that he has been successful coming off the bench to pinch hit. I think Grissom is an interesting case. He signed a minor league deal the same day that former Twins OF Michael Restovich did. My initial thought is that Grissom is a shoe-in at a big league job with the Cubs because of his ties with Baker. However, with the team's acquisitions of Pierre and Jones, the emergence of Matt Murton and Jerry Hairston being on the roster, there is a chance that Grissom will not make the team. I just think it will be interesting to watch. 

Team Fantasy Summary -
The Good – Lee, Barrett, Ramirez.
The Bad – Middle infield
Three Questions – Will Ronny Cedeno be given a full shot at everyday SS duties? What can Lee do as an encore? When will Todd Walker be traded?
 

Cincinnati Reds

C – Jason LaRue

At age 31, when catchers normally regress, LaRue put together the best season of his career. He added a little more patience to his already decent power numbers. I am expecting very similar rate numbers for him in 2006. However, with him playing 15 more games (by my projection), his raw numbers should increase. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

LaRue  125 410 45 108 28  0 17 187  71 52 105  0  0 .263 .346 .456 .802

1B – Adam Dunn

With the trade of Sean Casey, The Baseball Savant is very happy. Oh, and it would appear that Adam Dunn will get the majority of playing time at 1B. And fly ball throwing pitchers will also be happy! Dunn has some major power which is only aided by the short fences. Dunn does not hit for average. However, his career Isolated Discipline is an impressive .135. That's good, but sometimes he takes too many pitches which I feel for the fact that he strikes about about every 3.2 at bats. But again, with Dunn we're talking brute power. Expect him to hit a bunch of homers which should mean he should score and drive in a lot of runs.

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI  BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Dunn   161 555 106 142 34  0 42 302 101 124 171  3  2 .256 .392 .544 .936

2B – Ryan Freel/Tony Womack

Tony Womack is really good at not being too good. Ryan Freel will likely play most days unless he stays out too late another time or two. With the injury histories in the three outfield positions, there is a good chance that Freel will spend plenty of time out there. Unfortunately, the Reds actually traded a decent middle infielder in Kevin Howard as part of the deal to acquire Womack. Freel will be adequate with his value coming from his versatility. Womack needs to get on base to have much value, and he doesn't really do that well. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Freel   152 524 83 140 28  3  5 189  31 68 86 44 13 .267 .351 .361 .712
Womack   80 254 34  67  7  0  1  77  14 14 35 12  3 .264 .302 .303 .605

3B – Edwin Encarnacion

The 23 year old Encarnacion has been highly touted, one of the top 3B prospects in baseball the last three or four years. He finally got his chance with the Reds after the Joe Randa trade (although he was brought up a while before that). He got into 69 games and hit .232/.308/.436 in just 211 at bats. You have to like the Isolated Discipline shown by such a young man in his first trip to the big leagues. It is a number that he has been able to gradually increase each minor league season. He has not shown huge power numbers in the minor leagues, but he did combine to his 24 last year in 147 games between AAA and the Reds. I think that he as the ability to be very special... in a couple of years. He'll have to settle for 'really good' in his first full season. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Encrncn 141 464 58 130 33  0 20 223  76 49 108  7  2 .280 .349 .481 .830

SS – Felipe Lopez

Felipe Lopez had four seasons of Cuddy Syndrome. Like the Twins player, Lopez was up and down for two years in Toronto. Fortunately for him, the Jays traded him. Then he spent two years moving up and down in the Reds system. Last year, he finally took advantage of an opportunity and came through with an All Star performance. In 148 games, he hit .291/.352/.486 with 38 doubles, 23 homers and 85 RBI. The numbers made him the easy choice for NL Silver Slugger for SS. He also stole 15 bases. After such a season, he has to be given the SS job along with some leeway. Hopefully he will relax and just play. If so, expect him to again have very strong numbers.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Lopez    156 626 95 179 38  4 22 291  88 67 146 18  7 .286 .355 .465 .820
Aurilia   94 244 30  65 13  0  7  99  27 17  39  1  1 .266 .314 .406 .720

LF – Wily Mo Pena

After a couple of years flailing away for the Reds in very limited playing time only because he had to remain on their roster, Pena had a big 2004 seasons. Expecting much of the same in 2005 struggled some, but also found himself hurt a few times as well which really limited his playing time. I have probably been a little kind to a number of Reds hitters (in part due to their ball park), but if Pena can stay healthy and play this much, he could be a huge breakout player in 2006! I mean, he will play the entire season at just 24 years old. Oh, and last year, he struck out 116 times in just 311 at bats. That is one in every 2.68 at bats. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Pena   145 483 67 128 29  0 34 259  94 42 151  3  2 .265 .324 .536 .860

CF – Ken Griffey, Jr.

We all finally got our wish and got to see Griffey stay healthy for most of a season (128 games played), and he did produce again! He played in 128 games, most since 2000. He hit over .300 for the first time since 1997. He hit 35 homers for the first time since 2000. And I think we saw that signature smile again. I expect that Griffey will miss some time, but again, when he plays, he will produce, at least in the power categories.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Griffey 119 399 63 110 23  0 26 211  73 46 82  0  0 .276 .351 .529 .879

RF – Austin Kearns

Kearns has just never lived up to the hype that surrounded his half-season debut with the Reds in 2002. Since then, he has fought injuries and just plain struggled. He was in trade rumors most of the offseason, in part because he will make almost $3 million in 2006. It got so bad in 2005 that he was sent to AAA for 28 games just to regain his confidence. It worked. I guess I thought that Kearns was awful again last year. But then I looked at his numbers and they were .240/.333/.452 with 26 doubles, 18 homes and 67 RBI. Those are not horrible numbers for just 112 games. That is why I am predicting a breakout season for Kearns too (although I also show him missing 32 games). Power, plate discipline. Part of me would like to see it.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Kearns  130 458 77 124 31  1 26 235  87 76 117  4  1 .271 .375 .513 .888

One 2 Watch – Javier Valentin/Rich Aurilia

Both of these players really had reclamation years for the Reds. Valentin had really been a bust since his days with the Twins, and Aurilia had done little since his monster 2001 season. In limited duty (76 games), Valentin his .281/.362/.520 with 11 doubles and an impressive 14 homers in just 221 at bats. Aurilia got into 146 games and hit .282/.338/.444 with 23 doubles and 14 homers in 426 at bats. Both should again see limited duty.

Player    G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Valentin 108 261 33 67 14  0 11 114  36 29 49  0  0 .257 .331 .437 .768
Aurilia   94 244 30 65 13  0  7  99  27 17 39  1  1 .266 .314 .406 .720

Team Fantasy Summary -
The Good – When healthy, this could be the best OF in baseball, and Dunn now at 1B, with Lopez at SS.
The Bad – That OF isn’t likely to stay healthy. . 2B
Three Questions – How many games will Pena, Griffey and Kearns combine to miss? Can Lopez back up his excellent 2005 season? Can Encarnacion blossom?

Houston Astros

C – Brad Ausmus

Brad Ausmus will spend most of the 2006 season at the age of 37. Of course, he never was the offensive weapon, but he continues to do a great job behind the plate as well as come up with a timely hit. Last year he hit .258 with an excellent .093 Isolated Discipline .And, only 8 of his 51 walks were intentional, to get to the pitcher. If the Astros are smart and start limiting his playing time a little bit, he can still be a semi-productive player. Just not in most fantasy leagues.

Player   G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Ausmus  124 378 31 96 15  0  2 117  36 38 57  3  1 .254 .322 .310 .632

1B – Lance Berkman/Jeff Bagwell

Let's be honest here. The Astros are looking cruel and non-loyal, but they're smart. Bagwell likely will not play and if they can try to recoup $15 million of the $17+ million that they'll pay him, they should try to do that. So, I really don't think that Bagwell will play again with the Astros. That will set off a chain of events that truly will probably be in the best interest of the Astros. The first move is probably Berkman to full-time 1B. That should also be good for his knees. Berkman is an excellent hitter playing in a small park. By the way, Berkman turns 30 yeas old today. Berkman has had an OPS over .927 each of his six full big league seasons and I think that he will again. He has a great approach at the plate to go with the excellent power. Expect a big season from him if he can keep from missing so much playing time. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI  BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Berkman 157 526 90 156 35  1 31 286 109 105 96  3  2 .297 .414 .544 .957

2B – Craig Biggio

Bagwell is likely on his way out, and Biggio may not be far behind him. At 40 years old, Biggio still remains a very solid big league player. He is adequate on defense, especially now that he is back at 2B. He has remained remarkably healthy having played in at least 153 games in nine of the past ten seasons. He peaked over the .800 OPS mark in 2004, then slipped just below it in 2005. I expect a bigger drop-off in 2006. However, even still, check out the doubles and homer projections, and he is still rather productive.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Biggio 148 569 88 145 37  0 20 242  53 46 98  9  3 .255 .311 .425 .736

3B – Morgan Ensberg

Sure Ensberg struggled in the playoffs last fall, but that should in no way take away from his excellent 2005 numbers. In 150 games, he hit .283/.388/.557 with 30 doubles, 36 homers and 101 RBI. Most were career highs. He was almost as good in 2003. Although he played in less games, his HR and 2B frequency were very similar. Of course, many of us were burned by him in 2004 when he completely flopped. So, what does 2006 bring. In my opinion, he will pretty much pick up where he left off. I think he will fall back just slightly, but remain a quality ball player. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Ensberg 149 511 75 140 27  2 32 267  86 67 107  4  4 .274 .358 .523 .881

SS – Adam Everett

I was surprised to see the Everett had had OPS of .700 or more each of the previous two seasons before falling to just .654 last year. I was sure he hadn't even come close to that. Well, I think that he will play more games than he has before, and I also think that he will get closer to that .700 OPS again, just falling short.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Everett 154 570 77 149 29  2 13 221  54 40 106 23  6 .261 .310 .388 .698

LF – Preston Wilson

Wilson comes to the Astros as a free agent. The signing really marked the beginning of the end for Bagwell. It showed that they were not just going to sit back and wait. They went out and signed a guy who had a strong seasons in Colorado after some quality seasons in Florida, but who has also been injured a lot in his career. Even so, last year he hit .260 with 25 homers between hitter friendly Coors Field and pitchers paradise at RFK in DC. If Wilson can miss fewer than 20 games, he could be very productive. I have him projected for 61 extra base hits and 97 RBI despite hitting just .256. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Wilson  143 543 78 139 31  1 29 259  97 49 139  5  3 .256 .318 .477 .795

CF – Willy Taveras

Taveras is all about speed. He doesn't hit with much power. He is a leadoff guy who is lightning fast and can steal a lot of bases. Of course, as the old baseball saying goes, you can't steal first base. Despite hitting a solid .291 in his rookie season, Taveras only walked 25 times all year and had an on-base percentage of .325. I think his batting average could drop, and although he may walk more, he may not get on base as frequently. It is a big year for Taveras, I think. He either needs to somehow learn to walk more, or prove that he can hit well over .300 to prove his worth. Defensively, he is excellent though.

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Taveras  145 547 79 154 16  4  5 193  32 34 99 35  9 .282 .324 .353 .676

RF – Jason Lane

The person I would be most happy for if Bagwell does not play would be Jason Lane. If Bagwell plays, Berkman possibly moves to RF, or he plays a lot of LF, moving Wilson to either RF or CF meaning less playing time for Lane and/or Taveras. Now, I believe the Lane will see a lot of playing time. He will hit for a solid batting average and do a very good job of getting on base. The increased at bats will account for the jump in extra base hits to an excellent 69!

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Lane   156 546 70 149 38  2 29 278  87 61 114  7  3 .273 .346 .509 .855

One 2 Watch – Chris Burke/Luke Scott

Chris Burke became an instant hero last fall with his dramatic, 17th inning, game-winning homer off of the Braves Joey Devine. But the former 1st round pick is probably the player most hurt by the Preston Wilson signing as I believe to that time, Burke was in line to be the team's LF. Now, he will likely spell all three OF positions as well as getting some time at 2B and SS. Luke Scott made the Astros team last spring after showing amazing power in training camp. He struggled and was sent back to AAA. There, in 398 at bats, he had 25 doubles and 31 homers! He then went down to Venezuela for Winter Ball and led the league in homers. I don't know where he fits in with the team in 2006 though.

Player  G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Burke 112 324 55 90 20  1  7 133  33 35 70 14  5 .278 .348 .410 .759

Scott  76 197 22 53 11  2 12 104  24 23 51  3  1 .269 .345 .528 .873

Team Fantasy Summary -
The Good – Playing in Minute Maid Park. Lane and Berkman.
The Bad – Everett and Ausmus
The Question Marks – Can Taveras get on base enough or does Burke get a lot of CF time? Does Biggio have anything left? Can Wilson stay healthy and earn those three option years on his contract?
 

Milwaukee Brewers

C – Damien Miller/Chad Moeller

I think that this platoon might be a little more equal as the 36 year old Miller is getting up there! However, he just keeps putting up very solid offensive numbers and his ability to work with pitchers is respected. I do see a slight downturn in his power numbers in '06. Moeller is an adequate backup who may see more time this coming year. They are both former Twins who got World Series rings with the Diamondbacks.

Player    G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Miller   102 319 34 82 18  0  7 121  32 34 75  0  0 .257 .329 .379 .708
Moeller   81 253  0 57 12  1  6  89  25 20 60  0  0 .225 .282 .352 .634

1B – Prince Fielder

The Brewers appear to have all the confidence in the world in Fielder. They traded the steady Lyle Overbay to clear the 1B gig for Prince. The large 1B can hit, no question about it. The 21 year old was not at all intimidated by AAA pitching. In 2005, he hit .291/.388/.569 with 21 doubles, 28 homers and 86 RBI in 103 games. His numbers would have been bigger except for a couple of call ups to the Brewers. There he hit .288/.306/.458 with four doubles and two homers in just 59 at bats. My only concern with Fielder would be his attitude. I don't know what happened, but I know he was sent home from the Arizona Fall League shortly after whining about going there. All that said, I expect him to be one of those immediate impact players. He is not just a power hitter. What is scary is how good he will be in three years!

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Fielder 152 566 88 160 30  0 27 271  92 77 141  6  3 .283 .369 .479 .847

2B – Rickie Weeks

After a very strong 55 games at AAA in 2005 (.320/435/.655 with 14 doubles, 9 triples, 12 homers), he got called up to the Brewers. In 96 games, he hit .239/.333/.394 with 13 doubles and 13 homers. He also stole 15 bases. And, he ended the season with a wrist injury that really dropped his numbers. Now, he should be able to play a full season at 2B for the Crew. I am fully expecting him to put up some solid all-around numbers right away. 63 extra base hits to go with 21 stolen bases. He is a definite keep in most formats.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Weeks  157 589 96 156 34  5 24 272  74 84 148 21  8 .265 .357 .462 .818

3B – Corey Koskie

Not really sure the benefit Koskie brings to the Brewers on the field. Great teammate though. Because the team has Billy Hall and Corey Hart, I don't see Koskie getting a lot of playing time, but he does provide depth. He hasn't hit for a good average in a long time. His home run frequency has actually gotten better in recent years as his crazy strikeout totals rise. He does have a knack for getting on base.

Player   G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Koskie  86 276 30 70 14  0 11 117  37 41 68  2  2 .254 .350 .424 .774

SS – JJ Hardy

You can't even look at Hardy's overall numbers last year and get much out of it. Before the All-Star break, he hit .187/.293/.267. After the All-Star break, in two less at bats, he hit .308/.363/.503. Like night and day! Clearly he is not as bad as his first half would indicate. And, he's probably not ready to put up those 2nd half numbers over a full season yet. However, I also believe that he is fully capable of being a very solid big league SS with some very good power numbers.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Hardy  149 484 63 134 29  1 15 210  67 52 64  3  3 .277 .347 .434 .781

 LF – Carlos Lee

I keep hearing that Carlos Lee is on the trading block, or at least he will be at the trade deadline if the team is out of it. We are talking about a guy who had 41 doubles, 32 homers and 114 RBI in 2005! That said, he is a free agent at the end of the year, and if they can get some young high ceiling pitching for him, they should do that. Also, they believe that Corey Hart is ready to take over the position. (he wears his sunglasses, at night!) As you can see, I predict another great year for El Caballo!

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Lee    161 632 101 181 43  0 35 329 121 56 94 12  6 .286 .344 .521 .865

CF – Brady Clark

To say that Clark came out of nowhere last year would really not be a fair statement. He has played in at least 128 games for the Brewers each of the last three years. His numbers have gradually increased to what was a .798 OPS a year ago. he hit .306/.372/.426 with 31 doubles and 13 home runs. He earned the CF job, although there is now talk of Billy Hall getting some reps out there too.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Clark  152 616 83 179 33  1 14 256  68 72 68 13 10 .291 .365 .416 .780

RF – Geoff Jenkins

Before 2005, I think it would be fair to say that Jenkins would put up his best numbers in years in which he got hurt. Last year, he was able to put up great numbers and play in 148 games. Overall, he hit .292/.375/.513 with 42 doubles, 25 homers and 86 RBI. He is a solid corner outfielder who puts up consistent power numbers every year. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Jenkins 143 540 83 153 32  1 29 274  91 64 136  0  0 .283 .359 .507 .867

One 2 Watch – Bill Hall

The 26 year old is a member of the provisional Team USA roster. Hall had his breakout season last year when he was able to play in 146 games. He hit .291 with 39 doubles, 17 homers and 62 RBI. He also stole 18 bases. He played in over 20 games at 2B, 3B and SS making him a valued fantasy player. It is still uncertain what his role will be with the Brewers. 3B was his before the Koskie deal, and now we hear that he could move to the OF for some time too. They want to get his bat into the lineup, which is a good thing.   

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Hall   145 473 67 131 26  3 18 217  61 38 110 17  5 .277 .331 .459 .789

Team Fantasy Summary -
The Good - Carlos Lee, and the minor league system, particularly Weeks and Fielder.
The Bad – Catcher, 3B, Centerfield.
The Question Marks – Can Koskie stay healthy? (is that a rhetorical question?) Will Carlos Lee be traded? Can Hardy, Weeks and Fielder patrol the infield adequately while still being productive at the plate?
 

Pittsburgh Pirates

C – Ryan Doumit

Doumit was the Pirates 2nd round pick in 1999, the same year that the Twins drafted OF BJ Garbe. Ironically, they were teammates at their Moses Lake, Washington, high school! I would say that Doumit proved to be the better player, huh? The 24 year old Doumit started 2005 with the Pirates AAA team and hit .345/.415/.630 with 11 doubles and 12 homers in just 51 games. He was then called up to the Pirates where he got to play in 75 games. In 231 at bats, he hit 255/.324/.398 with 13 doubles and six homers. He should take over everyday catching duties for the Pirates. I obviously don't expect him to put up monster numbers yet at the plate, but expect that he will compete well at the dish.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Doumit  126 394 54 102 23  0 11 158  60 40 84  2  2 .259 .327 .401 .728

1B – Sean Casey

Casey came to his hometown team this winter in exchange for lefty Dave Williams. Casey is so very underrated. He is a career .312/.371/.462 hitter in his seven-plus big league seasons. Last year, he hit .312/.371/.423 with 32 doubles but just nine homers. In 2004, he hit .324 with 44 doubles and 24 homers. So, his power has been inconsistent but he is a very good hitter. Now, he also tends to miss a few weeks every season. But I do expect him to have a very solid 2006 season in the same division as the Pirates have added a couple of veterans. And, Jason Bay will likely be hitting behind him, which can't hurt!

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Casey   132 511 70 157 33  0 15 235  69 46 53  1  1 .307 .364 .460 .824

2B – Jose Castillo

Castillo enters training camp with an injury, but he should be ready to go by the regular season. So, much of the time I predict him missing will be at the beginning of the season. Last year, Castillo missed over 60 games, but showed great improvement from his rookie season. If he can stay healthy and play in more games, I expect that he will put up very similar rates, but more at bats equals more opportunity. If he can hit 22 doubles with 15 homers, that would be great as he and Jack Wilson combine to be one of the best defensive middle infields in baseball!

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Castillo 134 471 65 129 22  2 15 200  71 28 77  4  3 .274 .315 .425 .739

3B – Joe Randa

There was a lot of fan talk about bringing "The Joker" to Minnesota. However, at $3.5-$4 million, I think it's best that they let him go. Yes, Randa had 17 homers and 68 RBI last year. However, 13 of those homers came in Cincinnati. He hit just four once he joined the Padres before the trade deadline. He pretty consistently has maintained his OPS between .750-.800. I expect the 36 year old to match those numbers in 2006 and Pittsburgh's ballpark is not huge either.

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Randa  148 551 76 156 35  1 14 235  64 51 78  0  0 .283 .344 .426 .770

SS – Jack Wilson

Here are the OPS's of Wilson in his five big league seasons; .550, .638, .656, .794, .662. One of those numbers just does not fit... Hmmm... which one! Yeah, his 2004 season appeared to have been a fluke of some kind, a full season of fortune. Of course, if he can have an OPS over .650, he still provides plenty of value with his glove. However, offense is what matters to most fans. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Wilson  154 577 59 150 26  5  7 207  56 34 55  6  3 .260 .301 .359 .660

LF – Jason Bay

You hate to crown a guy as a 'sure-thing' after just two big league seasons, but I think that Jason Bay has earned that title at this point. Last year, the 27 year old played in 162 games and hit .306/.402/.559 with 44 doubles, six triples, 32 homers and 101 RBI. Oh, and for good measure, he was successful in 21 out of 22 stolen base attempts. I actually project him to put up even bigger numbers while playing everyday in 2006. By my rankings, he is a Top 5 hitter in the league.

Player  G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Bay    162 592 114 184 46  5 36 348 114 94 137 20  3 .311 .405 .588 .993

CF – Chris Duffy

I remember SportsCenter continually showing highlight catches, WebGems if you will, by Duffy. He was on every night it seemed after his call up. However, the man can also hit a little bit. In AA in 2004, he hit .309/.378, so he is able to get on base. In 2005, at AAA, he was hitting .308/.358 when he was called up. With the Pirates, he hit .341/.385/.429 with four doubles, two triples and a homer in just 39 games. I think he did enough to earn the CF job this year with the bat and the glove. No, I don't expect him to hit .340, but think that he can be very solid offensively. I just don't think that he will hit for much power yet. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Duffy  151 515 90 148 23  4  5 194  43 45 98  7  4 .287 .345 .377 .721

RF – Jeromy Burnitz

The Orioles thought that they had Burnitz, but the Pirates swooped in and got their man. From Burnitz, you know you won't get much batting average, but you know that he will hit some home runs. However, he will be 37 in April. I am projecting another OPS drop for Burnitz. However, that drop will be just .010 where his drop from the previous year was over .150!

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Burnitz 147 525 70 133 26  1 22 227  72 47 110  4  3 .253 .315 .432 .747

One 2 Watch – Craig Wilson/Jody Gerut

Each of these now-veterans has had their one big season, but injuries have just derailed their progress. Both settled somewhat large contract deals, so they will both be around, but how much they contribute is a big question.

Player   G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Gerut   92 196 22 52 11  0  4 75  24 23 24  5  2 .265 .342 .383 .725

Team Fantasy Summary -
The Good - Bay.
The Bad – Middle infield.
Three Questions – Just how good can Bay be? How will Duffy and Doumit do in their full-time jobs? Can Casey, Randa and Burnitz be the veteran influences to help make the team better?


St Louis Cardinals
 


C – Yadier Molina

Sure Bengie got the money. But for my money, this is the Molina that I would take. The still-23 year old catcher was not overmatched in his first season as the team's full-time catcher. All indications are that the pitchers love throwing to him. Now, he hit just .252/.295/.358 (.653 OPS) with 15 doubles and 8 homers a year ago. I expect him to take a nice step forward in 2006. No, he's not going to just to being a .300/400/500 hitter, or knock 25 homers, but this would be a nice progression.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Molina  126 432 46 115 20  0 11 168  57 29 41  3  2 .266 .312 .389 .701

1B – Albert Pujols

There are some absolutely incredible numbers that you can find by looking at Albert Pujols numbers, numbers that compare only to a couple of the biggest names in baseball history. However, the most amazing numbers of Pujols are these. Here are his at bat totals in his five seasons; 590, 590, 591, 592, 591! How does that happen!? Amazing! Like I was going to sway from that in my projections. Just think, my projection for Pujols' slugging percentage is higher than Yadier Molina's OPS from 2005! Honestly, trying to predict stats for a guy like Pujols is pretty easy. See how amazing his previous numbers were. Note that he just turned 26 years old and know that he could potentially still get better.

Player   G   AB  R   H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Pujols  159 592 129 194 47  1 51 396 128 81 54 12  4 .328 .409 .669 1.078

2B – Junior Spivey/Aaron Miles

The Cardinals lost Mark Grudzielanek to free agency this offseason. I have to admit when I saw that they acquired Miles in a trade and Spivey via free agency, I didn't exactly understand. However, if you look at their past three year splits, you will notice that Spivey has just crushed left-handed pitching (.292/.385/.550) and Miles has been very solid against right-handers (.297/.322/.373). Now, clearly Miles numbers aren't as great, but they are still higher than what Spivey has hit against righties over the same period. In other words, if used correctly, this could be a very useful platoon.

Player   G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Spivey  102 322 48 95 23  2 12 158  41 47 75  7  6 .295 .385 .491 .876

Miles    98 297 41 84 14  1  4 112  25 14 36  5  3 .283 .315 .377 .692

3B – Scott Rolen

Last year, Rolen played in just 56 games before deciding that it was in his and the team's best interest for him to have surgery. Hopefully it was successful and he will be able to be successful again. I obviously won't predict that he will play in 162 games, but if he can play in 139, and be productive, it would be huge for the Cardinals. We are talking about a guy who has an OPS well over .900 since joining the Cardinals in 2002. 

Player  G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Rolen  139 479 71 135 28  0 25 238  87 64 93  0  0 .282 .366 .497 .863

SS – David Eckstein

Moving to the leadoff spot in the Cardinals' lineup proved a positive thing for Eckstein and the team. He had his career-best OPS of .758. Overall, he hit .294/.363/.395 with 26 doubles, seven triples and eight home runs. I sometimes get annoyed when people talk about how great Eckstein is. It's hard to be great when you've never had an OPS over .800. However, there is something to be said about how he contributes to a team. Last year in the playoffs, they needed him to get on base, so he put the ball in play for a single. In another game, he hit a walk-off grand slam. He doesn't do anything great, but he does enough little things that it just ads up. Now, I don't think he'll be even as good in 2006, but I think with a healthy Rolen, he could score more runs. 

Player    G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Eckstein 160 622 96 178 25  2  6 225  48 68 51 12  7 .286 .357 .362 .718

LF – Larry Bigbie/So Taguchi

I mentioned the potential benefits of a platoon for the Cardinals at 2B. I think that the same thing could happen in LF. After spending parts of five seasons with the Orioles, Bigbie was sent to the Rockies last summer for Eric Byrnes. In the offseason, Bigbie and Miles went to the Cardinals in a trade. Over the last three years, he has an OPS against righties of .782. Taguchi is an excellent defensive outfielder. Also, there is no way that he looks 36 years old. Taguchi's OPS against lefties the past three years is just .715, but that is significantly better than what Bigbie's is.  

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Taguchi 112 344 43  94 18  1  7 135  46 19 51  8  5 .273 .311 .392 .704
Bigbie  123 424 57 117 23  2 15 189  54 41 97  7  4 .276 .340 .446 .786

CF – Jim Edmonds

Wow! Does Jim Edmonds strike out a lot, or what?! But, he can hit and hit for power! I think he's given up his singles swing a few years ago! I am predicting that his OPS will drop, but it will still remain above .900 for the seventh straight season. He just hits for so much power. It's hard for me to believe that he is just 35 years old yet.

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Edmonds 129 423 78 113 31  1 27 227  77 74 123  4  3 .267 .376 .537 .913

RF – Juan Encarnacion

I am a big fan of Encarnacion's, always have been. I'm not sure why. He is far from great. He doesn't hit for a real great average. Doesn't have a bad, but not a great plate approach. But again, he does a little of everything. Doubles, homers, decent defense, good arm, steals bases. I think that getting him is a good deal for the Cards. No, he won't replace Larry Walker, but few would. 

Player   G   AB  R  H  2B 3B HR  TB RBI BB  K  SB CS  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS

Encrncn 153 575 73 157 34  2 20 255  89 47 111 16  7 .273 .328 .443 .771

One 2 Watch – John Rodriguez

At the age of 28, Rodriguez got his first big league shot, and he took advantage. He got 146 at bats in 56 games. He hit .295/.382/.436 with six doubles, five homers and 24 RBI. You have to like a guy who stuck with it for that long and finally gets his chance. I can see him being a factor in the left field situation. 

Team Fantasy Summary -
The Good – Pujols, Rolen.
The Bad - Catcher, 2B and LF.
The Question Marks – Is it even possible for Pujols to do better? Can Rolen stay healthy? Can platoons work in LF and at 2B?


Well, that is it for Part 5 of my Fantasy Baseball Preview. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. Next up, I will discuss the National League East Division which should be early next week. Please let me know what you think. Any comments or suggestions would be welcomed! E-mail me.

 QUICK LINKS

Here are just a few other sites that I noticed over the past few days:

And on that note, I am going to call it a day and a week. Again, I apologize to everyone for missing a couple of days. I appreciate you continuing to come back. I hope you have a great day and a wonderful weekend! Please feel free to e-mail me any thoughts or comments or ideas. If you would like, I would encourage you to also post some Comments below for others to respond to. Thanks!        

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