Friday, February 6, 2009
Thinking the Unthinkable
Just a couple of quick notes
before we get started today:
·
First, be sure to
click here to read a Guest Posting by Brandon
Warne called Just Say No to Joe (Crede).
Brandon may write an occasional
article for the website so be sure to check for those.
·
KFAN’s Phil Mackey profiled Joe Crede
at his blog, P-Mac.
·
It’s not
surprising that the Twins and Matt Guerrier met
in the middle and signed a contract before going to an arbitration
hearing. It is good to have Guerrier signed. In fact,
I would not mind seeing them work on a two year deal now that they have 2009
covered.
·
Aaron Gleeman posted Prospects
16-20 yesterday.
·
See why Chris Parmelee
was Josh Johnson’s choice for the
Twins #13 prospect.
·
Twin Nation
returns and takes a
look at the Joe Mauer situation.
And that leads us
into today’s discussion topic and question, Should the
Twins Consider Trading Joe Mauer? I know. It
is unthinkable, unfathomable, sacrilegious, and against the laws of nature. I
get that. I fully understand that trading Joe
Mauer would have some horrible affects. Let’s
consider:
1.
Joe Mauer is one of us. He’s from Minnesota.
2.
Joe Mauer is a historically great player, having
won two batting titles at a position (catcher) where no other American League
player had before.
3.
Joe Mauer was drafted #1 overall, ahead of Mark
Prior – you may have heard?
4.
Joe Mauer has cool sideburns.
5.
Joe Mauer is an icon.
6.
Joe Mauer is Minnesota-nice.
7.
Joe Mauer won a Gold Glove.
8.
Joe Mauer is the face of the Twins franchise.
9.
Joe Mauer is an All-Star.
10.
Joe Mauer is still quite young.
11.
Joe Mauer has the sweetest swing in baseball.
12.
Attendance
would drop 50% (not-so-slight exaggeration) if Joe Mauer were traded.
13.
Who
would be the second M of the M&M Boys?
14.
Many
Twins fans would call the team “cheap” for trading him when he got really
expensive. (What?? There are already a lot of Twins fans who think the Twins
are cheap?)
15.
Joe Mauer, based on all of the above, NEEDS to be
on the field in a Twins uniform when they move into Target Field.
I know, I could
go on and on and on with reasons that trading Joe Mauer makes no sense. But let’s take
some of the emotion and the ties out of the picture for just a minute or three and
just consider the idea of trading Mauer.
There are
actually a couple of things that should be considered:
1.
Joe Mauer is a 6-6 catcher. As much as it annoys
me when people say he is an injury risk, the reality is that he is an injury
risk, especially when he turns 30… in several years.
2.
How
much is too much? If Joe Mauer is asking for $20 million, or even $25 million
for five or maybe six or even seven years, and won’t accept any less, does it
make sense for the Twins to allow that big of a percentage of the salary to be
taken by just one player?
3.
The
Twins have proven several times that they can be very successful in dealing
veteran players for young, talented contributors that can help them continue to
be competitive for years to come.
4.
The
big money teams that can afford Mauer are already
rumored to be drooling over the idea of Mauer joining
their team via free agency in two years.
So as I say all
the time… each trade or signing needs to make sense on its own merit. There are
basically no scenarios in which trade Joe
Mauer makes much sense. The Twins front office
would have to be overwhelmed beyond belief.
But
what about this…
What if Theo Epstein (Red Sox GM)
called and said, “Hi… we want Mauer… we will offer
you (Clay) Buchholz, (Justin) Masterson, (Jed) Lowrie,
(Lars) Anderson, (Ryan) Kalish,
and we’ll throw in (George) Kottaras. What do you think?”
What if the
Angels called up and said, “We want Mauer, and we
will send you (Mike) Napoli, Brandon
Wood, Nick Adenhart
and Jose Arredondo… OK, name one
more prospect.”
What if Brian Cashman
called and said, “OK, for Mauer, we will send Jorge Posada, and pay for the remainder
of his contract, catcher Jesus Montero,
Phil Hughes, 3B Brad Suttle, and a Player to be Named
Later (hush hush, Andrew Brackman). What do you think?”
In such
scenarios, you have to at least stay on the phone and ask some follow-up
questions, don’t you?
SUMMARY
No, I don’t think
that the Twins would consider trading Joe
Mauer. I believe that he will be kept beyond
2010, when his current four year, $33 million contract
expires. I think locking him up before the 2009 season would be best. But let’s
also be honest. Joe Mauer
has never accepted a hometown discount. He and his agent, Ron Shapiro, didn’t settle when Mauer was
the #1 overall pick. He signed for $5.5 million. His four year $33 million
contract that bough out a year of free agency. If the Twins let Mauer go to free agency after the 2010 season, there is no
doubt in my mind that he will use the offers of the Red Sox and Yankees an
maybe the Angels and Mets, to force the Twins to increase their offer. In that
worst case scenario, I still believe that Mauer would
end up with the Twins for quite some time.
The Twins are in
a tough spot. It is best for them to not let Joe Mauer get to free agency. It is best
to take care of it now because the closer they get to free agency, the less
incentive for Mauer to sign a long-term deal.
However, Mauer is coming off of a season in which he
won his second AL Batting Title, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove as well
as stayed healthy and caught in the second most innings of all AL catchers. His
value is very high now too.
So what do you
think? How will this Joe Mauer situation be resolved? Will he get signed this
spring, and for how much? Will he go to free agency, and what effect will that
have? Is it completely wrong for the Twins to consider trading the
catcher? Let
me know what you think.