Friday

Before I get started on the AL East preview, I want to take just a minute on another topic, so please bear with me. The other day, Jackie Robinson would have turned 87 years old. There was talk recently about baseball retiring Roberto Clemente's number across Major League Baseball, as they did with Robinson's #42. I think that would be a mistake. Clemente was a great man and a wonderful baseball player, but he wasn't even the first Latino ball player in the big leagues. He didn't enter uncharted waters as Robinson had. He didn't spark a movement that went beyond baseball and into a society that was barely ready for the integration. What Jackie Robinson did was so much bigger than himself, the Dodgers or even baseball.

Think for a minute how different baseball was before Branch Rickey signed Jackie Robinson and a year later made him the Dodgers 2B. Rickey had confidence in Robinson, and Robinson had the personality to handle everything that was thrown at him. Think about what happened to get Ron Artest to jump into the crowd and start a brawl. Robinson heard things that there hundreds/thousands times worse and more personal than anything Artest or any professional athlete today has to deal with. And then you take it to the level that as great a player as he was, he was not able to ride the same buses, stay in the same hotels, or eat in the same restaurants as his teammates. That first year had to be tough, but he persevered. I heard the Robinson's wife made Jackie go on a two week cruise just to get away from everything because it was just so much to deal with. But what he did opened the doors for so many people. Within a couple of years, the Dodgers had added players like Roy Campenella and Don Newcomb. Larry Doby became the first black player in the American League. It is important to remember that these other guys had to deal with the same things that Robinson did. So I believe it is important to acknowledge them as well. Why? Because they all went through ordeals that no person of any race should have to go through. It is hard for me to contemplate the treatment these men endured. But they paved the way for so many others in baseball.

Are race issues today where they need to be? I don't know. My assumption, sadly, is that we are probably still far away from true equality. But I have to believe we are closer. Jackie Robinson, Branch Rickey and Major League's Commissioner Happy Chandler integrated the league 59 years ago. We have come a long ways, but there is a long way to go yet. Hopefully it is not another 59 years before there is true equality in our society.

February is designated as Black History Month. We can joke that they picked the shortest month, and there may be something to that. But it is important to think about the sacrifices and hardships that so many African Americans have been through to get us closer to where we should be. Yesterday, Corretta Scott King, the wife of the late Dr. Martin Luther King, passed away. She was an icon, but she probably does not get nearly the credit that she deserves for making this better. Rosa Parks, Frederick Douglass, George Washington Carver, Harriet Tubman. The list goes on and on. But again, baseball was king in this country in the '40s and '50s, so I don't know if Jackie Robinson really gets the full credit he deserves for his role in achieving equality.

If it is all you do, please go to mlb.com's great web page dedicated to the life of Jackie Robinson. Courage. Determination. Teamwork. Persistance. Integrity. Citizenship. Justice. Commitment. Excellence. Those are nine words to help describe the magnitude of Robinson. I encourage everyone to take a little time and also learn a little more about the old Negro Leagues. Some of the stories from those men are just remarkable. There are a number of great sites to find such information. A couple of years ago, I wrote an article on some of the great Negro League players, the Hall of Famers who never got a chance to play in the Major Leagues.

People can talk about today's players and any 'unfair' advantages that they may have to set different records. However, any of Babe Ruth, Christy Matthewson, Walter Johnson, Lou Gehrig or other records compiled before 1949 are just as tainted. Why? Because those records were done in a league that excluded many of the greatest baseball players ever. They weren't playing against guys like Josh Gibson, Satchell Paige or Cool Papa Bell.

I know that a few paragraphs is not nearly enough time to devote to this topic. Hopefully in coming weeks and months I will find time to expand upon this by talking more about the stories of other great black men, and black ball players. But then again, is a month enough time to dedicate to such an important thing? Probably not. Do you have any favorite historical figures, ball players or not that you would like to talk about? Are there any great stories you have heard of the Negro Leagues? What are some of the crazy, unfortunate stories you have heard about black ball players in their early Major League years? I am fascinated by the history of this. Please e-mail me, or if you're willing, let's discuss it in the Comments below. Thanks!

Today, I will dive into the AL East division hitters in Part 3 of my Fantasy Perspective series. If you would like more detail on why I want to do this series as well as some of the thoughts that go into my 2006 Projections, please click here.

If you have any questions or comments about what I write here, or regarding your league, please e-mail me. If you would be fun, feel free to ask questions or comment on anything down below in the Comments section.

Today, we jump to the most talked about division in baseball. I no longer can say with any certainty that the AL East is king in the league. We can say that we do hear so much about them though. The Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays all made a splash in the media this offseason for a number of reasons. So, let’s get going on some analysis. If you have any comments, arguments, agreements, questions or anything, please feel free to e-mail me. When this project is complete, I would like to put together a Mailbag issue with many of those comments.

Be sure to check out Oriole Magic for his interesting thoughts on the Orioles Lineup.

Going into the offseason, Hernandez and Bengie Molina were the big name free agent catchers. Hernandez signed with the Orioles early, a puzzling move at the time. The O's had signed Javy Lopez only two years earlier to be their catcher. But, the situation should work out well. Hernandez has struggle with injuries (he played just 99 games in '05). He is a quality defender while Lopez is maybe league average on defense. In Camden Yards, Hernandez could increase his power numbers from the past. At 29, he still has a couple of years to be good.

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Hernandez 133 466 51 129 25 0 18 208 67 41 52 0 1 .277 .335 .446 .782

For the first time in six years, Millar had an OPS of under .800 in 2005. He really had a rough season with the Red Sox. He just signed with the Orioles this month and should be able to fill a couple of roles for the O's. He will likely play a lot of 1B, but can also spell time in the OF. Although not surrounded by the same cast as he was in Boston the last few years, Millar should still be able to put up some very respectable numbers. It is also believed that his presence in the clubhouse will be very positive for a team that had to deal with a lot of negativity in the second half of 2005.

What a bust out season 2005 was for Brian Roberts! Before his .902 OPS in '05, his previous best was just .724, and that came in 2004 when he set the O's record with 50 doubles. In many circles, he was considered the AL MVP through the first half of the season. He was the instigator that helped the team get off to its fast start. His season ended with a haunting arm injury, but he should be ready for spring training. I don't predict a repeat of 2005 for Roberts, but I still think he will be in the upper tier of 2B.

After posting a .982 OPS in 2004, Mora's OPS dropped to just .821 in 2005. His patience decreased some. His slugging numbers dropped fairly significantly. So, what will he do in 2005? Well, you have seen me predict breakout years for a couple of players. But today, I am going to project that Mora's slide will continue. He will still be very good and put up decent numbers, but nowhere near what he did just two years ago.

Apparently Tejada was not real happy with the Orioles offseason, huh? As the leader of the team, and as a guy who was called up by Rafael Palmiero last year, I believe he had every right to do a little talking. However, 2005 was not a great year for Tejada. After a very productive 2004, Tejada's numbers slipped in 2005. He lost 52 RBI in the year. His batting average dropped. I do believe that Tejada will have a nice comeback year in 2006. He will not walk much, but he will put up tremendous power numbers. And, he will be in the lineup every day, again, for the sixth straight year.

After going back to the Marlins, Conine has decided to come back to the Orioles for 2006. Now this is a typical Orioles signing. Get the veteran who, at 39, is on the downward slope of a very mediocre, but long, career. Last year with the Marlins, his playing time was diminished, and with it, his power. He hit just three home runs in 355 at bats. With the O's, I would expect him to play a little more than half time. He will likely be the regular left fielder to start the season, but could also play some 1B and DH as well as be a bat off the bench.

Now here are a couple of guys who, to date, have not met their incredible potential. Patterson's struggles have been very widely documented. He doesn't take many walks, he doesn't use his speed and never really developed his power. Plus, he just doesn't put the ball in play. A change of scenery could be good for him. Matos's primary problem has been staying healthy. He has a lot of talent, but just can not stay healthy over an extended time period. I think that these two will start the season by splitting time. I also think that each could see a little time in left field. It is a big year for both, but I think that Patterson will probably end up with more at bats, and he will actually come through a little bit.

Matos 96 309 41 79 15 1 8 120 25 27 51 11 3 .256 .315 .388 .704
Patterson 134 489 67 133 32 2 17 220 59 27 129 24 7 .272 .310 .450 .760

Gibbons just signed a nice four year contract for over $21 million to take him through his arbitration years and some. Lets see, his batting averages the last four years have been .246, .277, .247, .277. So, he is likely to hit about .248, right? No, that would be too easy to crack that code. I think he is somewhere in between. He is not a smooth hitter. By that I mean that he does strikeout a lot and will never really hit for a lot of average. But he does have some power, and can get some extra base hits. He just needs to stay healthy too.

I have listed Lopez as the DH, but he will likely also catch probably 40-45% of the time for the O's. He may also get a few games at 1B. This really could be a very good thing for Lopez's career. Each day, he will likely know his role once the game starts. If he is the DH, that's all he needs to think about. If it is his turn to catch, he will likely catch the whole day. It may keep him fresh, and with that, his numbers should go up a little bit. That said, he is 35 years old and has caught in a lot of games. His OPS the last two years has gone from 1.065 to .863 to .780, and I would project that the decline will continue.

Newhan was a great story in 2004. In 95 games, he posted an OPS of 814. In 2005, he played in 96 games, but only in a part-time role, and his numbers really fell, to an OPS of .591. His Isolated Discipline actually improved to a nice .071, which is a positive. If the two guys in CF struggle, or Conine is done as an everyday LF, don't be surprised if Newhan gets a little more of a full-time look later in the season. And, if he does, I would expect a return to mediocrity for him.

The Questions - How will Tejada's offseason ranting translate into the season? Will either CF find a way to reach his full potential? How will that catching situation actually play itself out?

Varitek had another very solid year in 2005. An OPS of .856 from a catcher is very good. To get that from a 33 year old catcher is very impressive! Against left-handed pitching, he hit a respectable .267/.347/.457, but against righties, he hit .320/.418/.582. Surprisingly, he actually hit far better away from home. But again, he is a 33 year old catcher, so the assumption has to be that he will decline. My projections may be a little bit harsh as I have his OPS dropping about .085. However, Varitek has managed to remain durable the last four years, so he remains a very solid fantasy catcher.

Everyone will be watching Kevin Youklis this year. Stat-heads and Moneyball fans will be hoping that he can prove them right. He has always been great at getting on base, knowing the strike zone, and hitting for some power. Most of his value comes from his ability to take a walk. Expect an Isolated Discipline of over .100. JT Snow was brought in, probably, as a little insurance. I think that the Red Sox are committed to giving Youklis a shot. Snow also provides great defense. I think his role will be more like that of John Olerud. Good defense and a veteran bat on the bench.

After not getting much consistent playing time in Milwaukee, Loretta went to San Diego and became a very solid, underrated contributor. After hitting .314 and .335 his first two years, Loretta missed almost 60 games last year and hit just .280. Some may think that he will return to that .300 hitter level, but I really don't. I think that he is a very solid player, but his age could now start catching up with him.

Lowell is a big question mark for the Red Sox. After five good seasons in Florida, Lowell was horrible in 2005. He didn't hit for average, and he completely lost his power. After averaging about 27 homers in the previous three seasons, he hit just eight last year. Now I, for one, think that at just 31, he will be able to come back and be very good again. I think his average will come up, but not to the level of before. I also think that his power numbers will get closer to his previous levels. The Red Sox hope so too now that they have traded Andy Marte!

I personally thought that the Red Sox could have gone with Alex Cora as their everyday SS. He is great with the glove which the team could definitely use up the middle. But he is also not a terrible hitter. Last year was not a good year for him, but I would credit that to the fact that he was playing part time. In his previous three seasons with the Dodgers, he had decent middle infield batting average, but he was very good at getting on base. In 2004, his Isolated Discipline was .100. But yesterday, they decided to give Alex Gonzalez a ridiculous $3 million to be their SS. Now, Gonzalez will certainly hit for more power, and he really does play decent defense. However, why did they need to give him that much money this late in the year?

I am no Manny Ramirez fan, but the man can flat-out hit! After six straight seasons with an OPS of over 1.000, it dipped to .982 in 2005, still an excellent season by any measure. I am actually predicting a good sized drop in ManRam's performance in 2006. He will still be excellent and get on base a lot. He will still be one of the better players and fantasy players in the league. 31 doubles and 38 homers is excellent. I just think that he is getting older and his attitude and lethargy will eventually catch up with him. We know he didn't want to play in Boston. Will it show?

Well, the not-well-hidden trade finally happened and Crisp is a Red Sox player. I predict that Crisp will put up numbers very similar to what he did in Cleveland a year ago. I expect he will become a fan favorite. I also think that he will be a better player than Johnny Damon (fantasy and real). Not in 2006, but maybe by 2007, and certainly by the time that Damon is still making $13+ million in 2008 and 2009!

Nixon remained hurt much of 2005, but continued to play. I always thought the Nixon's performance would be perfect in showing what Jacque Jones' numbers could have been Like Jones, Nixon is absolutely unable to hit against left-handed pitchers. Unlike Jones, Nixon did not play much against lefties. So, his numbers looked good. Nixon provides some extra base hit power, and puts together good at bats. Recently, the Red Sox signed former Twins player Dustan Mohr. I think he will take Gabe Kapler's role as Nixon's RF platoon-mate.

One of my favorite former Twins, I was so thrilled to see Ortiz play so well in 2003 (31 homers and 101 RBI in just 128 games). I figured he would be good player in 2004, but the year he put up was amazing. He played in 150 games, easily a career high. He hit .301/.380/.603 with 47 doubles, 41 homers and 139 RBI. He finished 4^th in the AL in the MVP race. In 2005, he was even better. He finished runner-up to A-Rod in the AL MVP vote (although many thought he was deserving because of his "clutchness"). He hit .300/.397/.604 with 47 homers and 148 RBI. Again, I can't imagine him repeating that season, so I have decreased his numbers, but not a lot. He is a great 1B option in any league, especially now that he plays every day.

Graffanino probably assumed he would be the Red Sox 2B this year, but then Mark Loretta arrived via trade. Then he probably thought he might be a utility player, but with the signing of Alex Gonzalez, Graffanino falls further in the rotation. He really did well in his 51 games after coming to the Red Sox from Kansas City midseason. Now it is likely that he will be traded or hidden on the end of the Sox bench.

Three Questions – What will Youklis do with his increased role? Can David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez both finish Top 5 in MVP voting again? Will Manny stay with the team, and be happy?

Last year, his Age 33 season, Posada's OPS dropped almost .100. That is a huge drop for a guy who had been over .837 five straight seasons. He fell by a couple home runs, but by eight doubles, despite more at bats. I project that Posada will continue to drop in productivity, although not quite as big a jump. Like Varitek, he is still a quality fantasy play as a catcher. However, there are younger options that should do just as well, with much bigger upsides.

Did you notice that Jason Giambi had an Isolated Discipline in 2005 of .169! That is absolutely amazing! In 525 plate appearances, he walked 108 times. After a horrible 2004 season, Giambi really came back well after a slow 2005 start. Starting in June, his monthly OPS was always over .900. In July, he was incredible. He hit .355/.524/.974 with 14 homers! So, what will Giambi do in 2006 when he won't start the season under as much scrutiny. I expect him to do very well!

Cano was a guy that I really liked going into the 2005 season. However, I never would have expected him to be such an important factor in the Yankees season. He hit just under .300. One negative though is his inability to take a walk with the Yankees. He walked just 16 times in 541 plate appearances for an Isolated Discipline of .023. So, will he increase that number? Will he be able to maintain his power numbers? I actually expect him to put up very similar numbers in 2006 with even more play. I expect his average to drop a little, but for him to be a little more patient at the plate.

The 2005 AL MVP, A-Rod had a monster season. The year before, his first in New York, was his first sub-.900 OPS in six years. In '05, he played in all 162 games and hit his way to his fifth season over 1.000 OPS. I don't expect A-Rod to put up those same numbers. I expect a slight decrease in most of his numbers. However, with Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter hitting ahead of him, I expect his RBI total to increase.

Is it possible for one of the most talented, recognized, successful players in the big leagues is underrated? If so, I think that is the case with Jeter. He does a little bit of everything. He has hit over .300 in seven of his nine seasons. He has hit 15 or more homers in seven seasons. Although not really a traditional hitter, he has leadoff for the Yankees. He should move to the second slot in the Yankees lineup this year and have a few more RBI chances. He is so consistent that sometimes I just don't think that he gets the respect he deserves... and Tim McCarver's constant gushing only hurts that cause.

Following another solid season with the Yankees, he will be back for three more years in pinstripes. Matsui is a very professional hitter. He made great adjustments throughout his rookie season. In his second year, all of his numbers increased. Last year, his doubles total jumped to 45 while his homers dropped from 31 to 25. So, what do we expect in 2006? Much of the same. Much consistency. One question has to be though, will this be the year that his impressive consecutive games played streak will come to an end?

Four years and $52 million, huh? I have to say I'm in agreement with the Red Sox on this one. That said, Damon should be very solid again for 2006, and probably even 2007. By 2008, it is likely that he will be a liability, especially on defense. He will hit for average, take plenty of walks, get lots of extra base hits, and in Yankees Stadium, he could pull a few balls over the short right field fence. I also expect his stolen base totals to increase being out of Boston.

Sheffield's OPS the last three years have gone from 1.021 to .927 to .891. I suppose that signals a drop-off in performance. It does, but even with that decrease, Shef hit .294 with 34 homers and 123 RBI in 2005. He actually had four more hits in 2005 than 2004, but he had ten less extra base hits. Sheffield, in my opinion, should be a definite Hall of Famer. In 2006, I do expect that his OPS will fall a little bit more. He is 37 years old. However, I could be completely wrong because of one important factor. He is a free agent after the season. That is some motivation for any player.

Before last year, it was fair to say that Williams had digressed as an outfielder. His knees and shoulders made him a big-time liability on defense. However, saying that he couldn't hit was not true. After what he did in 2005, it may now be fair to say that as well. His average dropped under .250. His on base percentage was low. He seemingly lost most of his power. Now, with the addition of Johnny Damon, I do expect Williams' numbers to increase a little bit in 2006, but not significantly. I also think that he will lose some time to Andy Phillips.

The Yankees first round pick in 2003 out of his New Jersey high school, Duncan immediately became one of the better (and few) hitting prospects. At AA Trenton in 2005, Duncan hit just .236 with 19 homers. However, he was named the top player in the Arizona Fall League. Because of the presence of A-Rod, it is probably that Duncan will have to move over to 1B at some point.

The Bad – The DH spot is really about it, although catcher may be quickly approaching this status.

Three Questions - Does Bernie have anything yet? How much do Sheffield, Damon, and Posada have left in their tanks. How many runs will this lineup score?!

Finally, at the age of 28, Hall put together the type of season that Rays management had probably hoped he would for years. And, that resulted in an OPS of just .683! He hits for some power, but not a lot of home runs. In his four full seasons, his OPS has remained between .666 and .683. I predict that Hall will have his lowest career OPS in 2006, although not far from his career numbers. He doesn't walk and he doesn't hit for power. He is a liability to the team. That said, the team does get offense other places, so if Hall can make the pitching staff decent, that's all he needs to do.

Travis Lee, former Twins first round pick, is an average big league player. Of course, playing a corner infield position, that makes him below average at his position, but he is a decent player. Sure, he can't hit at all away from Tropicana Field (.679 OPS) or against lefties (.579 OPS), but by the end of the season, he usually has put up decent numbers. I like his patience and he does have a nice swing. He just does not have a lot of power. I also wonder if when Delmon Young comes up to the big leagues, maybe one of the excess OF will take over some time at 1B, maybe Jonny Gomes?

I think it is fair to say that Jorge Cantu was one of baseball's biggest surprises in 2005! Although he hit well in 50 games for the Rays in 2004, the team brought in Roberto Alomar for spring training last year to see if he had anything left. He didn't, and Cantu got his shot. He responded in a big way by hitting .286 with 40 doubles, 28 homers and 117 RBI. The lone negative could be his lack of walks. His Isolated Discipline was a horrible .025. He will need to up that number in order to take the next step into stardom. Prior to 2004 though, Cantu had shown little power (14 homers in 5 seasons) and hadn't hit over .256 in the previous three years. So, there are some questions here, but still just 24, there is a good chance that Cantu is the real deal.

Maybe all Burroughs needed was a change of scenery. He had hit well in terms of average, but he just never developed any power. I think that is what had people disappointed in San Diego. Will he ever develop power? I don't know. He could in this lineup, but we'll see how much opportunity he gets. Wigginton spent most of 2005 at AAA and has struggled. The team also signed Russell Branyan yesterday to compete at 3B and as a power bat off the bench.

Burroughs 133 421 41 123 21 2 5 163 43 37 58 4 2 .292 .349 .387 .737
Wigginton 45 156 15 38 9 0 5 62 19 13 29 0 0 .244 .302 .397 .699

Will Lugo remain with the team all season? I would say it is highly unlikely. The Rays are very much committed to BJ Upton and remain hopeful that he will become a decent defensive SS. Lugo is a solid major league SS. He hits a lot of doubles, a few triples and a few homers. However, his fantasy value comes primarily from his ability to steal bases. I expect that Upton will be the starter at the beginning of the season, but I think Lugo will be traded (so his projections also assume a trade). As soon as he is, the BJ Upton Era will begin. Now there is a guy that can hit, not just for a SS, but overall. He will hit for plenty of power as well as be able to steal bases. I think Joe Maddon as his manager will be far better for his development than Lou Pinella.

Lugo 149 533 85 152 34 4 7 215 53 49 68 33 10 .285 .345 .403 .749
Upton 99 368 51 109 22 4 12 175 44 42 94 16 5 .296 .368 .476 .844

In 5x5 fantasy leagues, players know of Crawford's value. His ability to steal bases is very important as few players steal as many as he does. Last year, his power numbers moved up a little as did his batting average. I fully expect Crawford to take a huge step forward in 2006 (in which he will be 24 most of the season) across the board. More doubles, almost as many triples (where he is a league leader) and more home runs. I think he'll move down to #3 in the order meaning more RBI chances. I also think that his stolen bases will be more than last year just because the team should be more competitive. I think that Crawford's value increases in any league format.

Baldelli is another guy that is hard to project for 2006. The reason is because he missed the entire 2005 season with Tommy John surgery. He has been a much ballyhooed player in the two years that he did play. However, even in those years his OPS was never over .762. That isn't great by any means. He also is not the stolen base threat that Crawford is despite just as much speed. I expect Baldelli to struggle to start the year, but he should eventually end up with numbers similar to his two previous seasons. I was shocked when the Rays signed him to a long term deal. Not because it isn't smart to do that, but coming off of missing a full year with an injury and being an average player only means that they really didn't have to do that.

Gomes started last year at AAA Durham. In 45 games there, he hit 14 homers. A great number. However, he hit .321/.446/.660 in that time. Are you as impressed with the Isolated Discipline of .125 as much as I am?! That is a great number! However, his seasonal Isolated Disciplines have been over .100 in each year of his career. So, when he posted an excellent .090 mark in his 101 games with the Rays, it is impressive, but clearly that is a big part of his game. As is power as evidenced by 21 homers in 348 at bats. I do expect Gomes and his numbers to fall back toward earth in his sophomore year despite more playing time. I think that his role could be to become the DH if Aubrey Huff gets traded and Delmon Young comes up. No matter what, it is a great continuation of a life that almost came to an end less than three years ago. As a minor leaguer, Gomes had a heart attack. But he has come back healthy and shown exactly what someone can do after such an experience.

After three great offensive seasons for the Rays, Huff really struggled in 2005 with extreme inconsistency. He got off to a bad start and the rest of his season was just a rollercoaster. One month would be good, the next month bad again, the next month good, the next month bad. I expect that Huff will continue to play somewhere most every day, even after he gets traded (should that finally happen). He is a good hitter and I think he will perform much closer to his 2004 numbers than 2005.

Gathright has been the talk of many teams throughout the Hot Stove season, but as of yet, the Rays have not been willing to let him go despite their impressive depth in the outfield. His skill is his speed. It is believed that he is one of the two or three fastest players in the big leagues. He has turned that into very solid stolen base numbers. However, he is not a great overall hitter, so I don't know why the Rays would be so hesitant to get rid of him. He would do better in another organization playing more, and the Rays don't really need him and could get much needed pitching for him. Delmon Young was the 2005 Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. He spouted off about the Rays for not calling him up. Young is just a very talented 20 year old hitter. He was great at AA last year, and hit alright at AAA. However, he just refused to take a walk at that level. But he will hit for high average as well as for power. He can also run. He should be up by June, and playing every day.

Gathright 85 253 49 74 12 6 1 101 21 23 56 30 9 .292 .351 .399 .751
Young 96 343 49 98 14 2 7 137 59 22 89 14 6 .286 .329 .399 .728

Three Questions – How good can Carl Crawford become? Is Jorge Cantu the real thing? When will BJ Upton and Delmon Young get called up and what can they do?

Gregg Zaun has been in the big leagues every season since 1995. Last year was really his first time as a full-time starter anywhere. His biggest positive is his ability to get on-base. For instance, last year he hit just .251, but he got on base over 35.5% of the time. He will give you some power, but his advanced number were better with him in part-time duty. Many believe that Quiroz is likely best suited to be a backup catcher in the big leagues. Just a year ago, most thought he was the heir-apparent. He still could be, but he really struggled at AAA in 2005 too. Of course, rumors persist that the Jays could sign Bengie Molina. If that is the case, it would be a nice platoon opportunity with Zaun. However, Molina will have to come far down from his current contract demands.

Zaun 121 385 49 101 20 0 8 145 51 56 60 1 1 .262 .356 .377 .733
Quiroz 59 148 17 39 6 0 3 54 22 14 33 0 0 .264 .327 .365 .692

Overbay was supposed to be the everyday 1B in Arizona in 2003, but they ended up giving the majority of playing time to Mark Grace. Overbay was traded to the Brewers as part of the Richie Sexson deal and he put up two very strong seasons in Milwaukee. To make room for Prince Fielder, the Brewers sent Overbay to the Blue Jays for four players. It was probably a good deal for the Blue Jays. Overbay is a solid hitter with good plate discipline. He will hit for some power, although that really is not his strong suit. He will be good for the Jays.

The Jays first round pick in 2003 out of LSU quickly moved through the system and last year made a nice splash with the big club. In 104 games, he held his own by hitting .274 with a very respectable .342 on base percentage. He may eventually hit for some power, but probably not yet in 2005.

One of the more overrated, one-dimensional players in baseball. First, we are talking about a guy who missed 175 games between 2003 and 2004. Second, his contract is absolutely ridiculous. Third, he will now play home games on turf. Fourth, he is a career .253 hitter over his eight seasons. However, his career Isolated Discipline is a very nice .105 and when he is healthy, he will provide plenty of home runs to a team. It is difficult to project Glaus because trying to guess how many games he will play in will be difficult. But, here is my attempt:

The Jays first round pick in 2002 (from North Carolina) took the SS job last spring and ran with it all season long. In 139 games, he hit .256/.325/.383 with 27 doubles, five triples and eight homers. I expect all of those numbers to increase in 2006. Actually, I predict very similar numbers between both Adams and Aaron Hill. If they can play defense up the middle, they could be the team's keystone combo for the next few years.

29 year old Johnson was the primary starter last year. I think he could be referred to as the personification of an average big league outfielder. I just don't see much ceiling on him and expect that the Jays don't either. I think that Catalanotto will see more time in left field this year as well as some at DH. He is a very professional hitter and really deserves the extra playing time. Overall though, LF will not be a strength for the Jays.

Johnson 119 339 46 88 18 2 7 131 42 28 68 4 2 .260 .316 .386 .703
Catalanotto 81 244 29 71 16 2 5 106 28 24 43 0 0 .291 .354 .434 .789

Vernon Wells has been a good big league outfielder throughout his career. However, he is probably not happy that his batting averages have been .272 and .267 the past two year. He is still just 27 years old and I am totally expecting Wells to have a huge 2006 season. He will hit a lot of doubles, a lot of homers as well as getting his batting average closer to .300.

Last year, Rios put together a very solid first full big league season. Many were disappointed that his power disappeared in his first big league showing. Last year, he hit 10 homers in 146 games. However, his minor league high HR number was just 11 in 2003 at AA. So, it wasn't fair to expect him to hit a lot of homers. That said, he is still just 24 years old and at 6-5 can still grow into his frame. I believe power will develop with him. For now, be happy with a bunch of doubles, lots of speed and a strong arm.

Hillenbrand is now going to be playing his best defensive position... DH! The additions of Glaus and Overbay put Hillenbrand to the spot. It is probably good for him. Known for not walking much, Hillenbrand has actually improved his plate discipline the last couple of years although he is still not great. He hits a lot of doubles, but he has not developed into the big homer hitter that many would have thought. He is a solid hitter who puts the ball in play. He is another trade candidate.

Hinske was the rookie of the year in 2002, but things have not been good for him since. The Wisconsin native is now really without a position. It is very difficult to know how much he will play. Glaus will likely get injured and Overbay and Hillenbrand will occasionally need some time off. He will have to take advantage when he does get a chance to play.

Three Questions – How will all the corner infielders co-exist? Can Rios, Adams and Gross continue to improve? Is Wells capable of the year I have projected for him?

Well, that is it for Part 3 of my Fantasy Baseball Preview. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. The same format will be used for the rest of the teams in baseball. In the coming days, I will discuss the National League Western Division hitters. Please let me know what you think. Any comments or suggestions would be welcomed! E-mail me.

And on that note, I wish you a great day. If you have any questions or comments on anything you have read above, please e-mail me. Have yourself a great week!