Tuesday January 20, 2004
 

TWINS THOUGHTS

TIMBERWOLVES THOUGHTS
 

FANTASY PERSPECTIVE:

American League Central Hitters

Over the course of the next couple of weeks, I will be providing a team-by-team look at many of the major league players from a fantasy baseball perspective. I want to do this for a couple of reasons. First, I love fantasy baseball and love discussing what I think of certain players. Second, I know that many people who take the time to read baseball sites like this one participate in fantasy baseball leagues as well.

However, I do understand not everyone gets into fantasy sports, and that’s OK too. I do not think that my “analysis” will be too “statty” so it should be enjoyable for any baseball fan to read.

I know it is a little bit early to be talking about fantasy baseball, but I know that many keeper leagues have to turn in their ‘keepers’ this month. Also, aside from Ivan Rodriguez and Greg Maddux, most of the free agents still available will be bit players and may or may not affect some of the comments below. However, there could still be some trades which could alter some of these opinions. For instance, if Jacque Jones is traded, that would greatly change the value of Michael Cuddyer. It could also affect how Jacque Jones would be valued.

Another point to mention before getting started is that there are many forms of fantasy baseball. There are the traditional rotisserie leagues, 5x5 leagues, head-to-head, simulation, keeper leagues, American League Only, National League only and many more. Most leagues probably vary in subtle ways. I am not going to try to analyze for any specific variety. I will just give my opinions on the players. When I project a round-range where the player could be drafted, it will be based on a 30 round major league draft.

If you have any questions or comments, please e-mail me.

Disclaimer: What you read below are simply my opinions. Obviously I have no knowledge of what will happen in the 2004 season, so please take the information for what it is worth (fun). Also, these opinions are subject to change as spring training approaches. All players listed are either projected starters, or starters based on my opinion.

Here is the schedule for this project:

Tuesday - Part 1 - American League Central Hitters

Wednesday - Part 2 - American League East Hitters

Thursday - Part 3 - American League West Hitters

Friday - Part 4 - National League Central Hitters

Monday - Part 5 - National League East Hitters

Tuesday - Part 6 - National League West Hitters

Wednesday - Part 7 - American League Pitchers

Thursday - Part 8 - National League Pitchers

Friday - Part 9 - Rookies and Prospects
 

PART 1:

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL HITTERS

I am actually choosing to start with the American League Central Division. Not because it is the division the Twins play in. Not because it is the weakest division in all of baseball. The reason is far deeper than that; because it is the division that comes up first in alphabetical order. That is also the order that I will showcase the teams in below. That said, because the AL Central is such a weak division, many of the players that you see below would not be drafted as high as many from other divisions.  So, let’s get going on some analysis. If you have any comments, arguments, agreements, questions or anything, please feel free to e-mail me. When this project is complete, I would like to put together a Mailbag issue with many of those comments.

Chicago White Sox

C - Miguel Olivo

Miguel Olivo should get more of the playing time this year. With increased playing time, his value should increase from his .237 with 6 homers in 2003. However, he’s certainly not a top-tier catching option. Late round pick.

1B - Paul Konerko

Paul Konerko was inexplicably bad in 2003. He had been so good the two previous years and nothing seemed to fall in for him last year. I wouldn’t expect a return to his All-Star form, but I think .280 with 25 homers is realistic. Last year, I took him in the 7^th round. This year, you could probably get him closer to the 15^th round.

2B - Willie Harris

You wonder why the Sox were so quick to trade Aaron Miles. Willie Harris has now been up for a few years, shifting between 2B and CF. Maybe given a full opportunity, he can be an adequate player. I wouldn’t draft him though.

3B - Joe Crede

Crede will now be in his third full season as the White Sox 3B. He continues to show glimpses of stardom (19 home runs in 2003), but hasn’t been able to be at all consistent. He will continue to play every day, so he’s not a bad option. I would project him as around a 20^th round pick.

SS - Jose Valentin /Jose Uribe

Jose Valentin can provide some decent power numbers (28 homers last year), but he can’t hit (.237), especially against lefties (.131). That is probably why Uribe was brought in (.301 vs lefties). With a platoon situation, the value of each of these players drops. I would take Valentin in the 25^th round. I would pick up Uribe after the draft if something changes.

LF - Carlos Lee

Lee really has been underrated for a couple of seasons. He will provide about 30 homers, plenty of RBI (and for those in Chicago… improved defense!).  2003: .291, 31 homers, 113 RBI, with 18 stolen bases. I can see him being drafted in rounds 7 to 9.

CF - Aaron Rowand

Rowand is an excellent, defensive fourth outfielder (re: Dustan Mohr-like). He can hit a little bit and when given playing time has shown some power. There are many, many better outfield options to draft. Actually, there may be better options for the White Sox, like Joe Borchard.

RF - Magglio Ordonez

One of the best hitters in the American League over the past five seasons. In those years, he has hit between .301 and .320 and averaged 32 homers and 118 RBI a season.  If he’s around in the 3^rd round, grab him! Quick!

DH - Frank Thomas

Diminished skills? 2002: 28 home runs and 92 RBI. 2003: 42 homers, 105 RBI. So, he no longer hits .340, but he is still pretty good and walks 100 times a year. I would take him in the 5^th - 7^th rounds.

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good - Ordonez is great. Lee and Thomas are right behind him.
The Bad - Rowand and Harris. Probably the SS Situation.
The Questions - Which Konerko will show up? Can Crede reach his potential for a full season? Is there any hope in the minor leagues?

Cleveland Indians

C - Victor Martinez

Known for his hitting, Martinez hit .289 in 159 at bats. He should get most of the at bats ahead of Josh Bard. He could hit .300 with some power (not a lot). He could be a late-round sleeper. I think he’s worth taking a shot on after round 20.

1B - Travis Hafner

The North Dakota product had 14 homers in 281 at bats in 2003. He walked just 22 times and struck out 81 times. Hafner needs consistent at bats, and obviously to cut down on the strikeouts. If he gets 500 at bats, he could hit some homers. He won’t hit for average though. Late round risk.

2B - Ron Belliard /Brandon Phillips

I don’t understand the signing of Belliard. He has been a decent utility player in Colorado the last couple of seasons. But, from the plan of the Indians, Belliard doesn’t make a lot of sense. But, Brandon Phillips failed miserably last season. However, he was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball last spring for some reason. I would like to see them stick with him. I would see how this situation plays out in spring training, but I wouldn’t draft either of them.

3B - Casey Blake

This is a big year for Casey Blake. He performed admirably last year in his first opportunity to play full time (.257/17/57).  At 30 years old, will he improve those numbers, or show again why it took him so long to get a gig? He’s a former Twin, so obviously, I’d love to see him do well. Just not as well as he did against the Twins last year! Late-round draft pick, if at all.

SS - Omar Vizquel

Vizquel played in just 64 games last year because of knee surgery. Cleveland tried to trade him to the Mariners last month, but his knee failed a physical, voiding the trade. I think that makes him way too risky to draft. He was great in 2002, but even if he has an ‘average’ season for himself, he’s only worth a late-round pick. I’d look elsewhere for my shortstop.

LF - Alex Escobar/Coco Crisp

The Indians have quality depth in the outfield. Two years ago, Alex Escobar was a five-tool, top 3 prospect in all of baseball. But major knee surgery cost him the better part of two seasons. Coco Crisp isn’t a great prospect, but he can steals bases, giving him some fantasy value as well. Monitor this situation in spring training. If Escobar looks like he’s healthy and could start, he is well worth a late-round pick. Crisp probably won’t get drafted in your league, but watch his playing time.

CF - Milton Bradley

At the All-Star break last year, Milton Bradley was putting up big numbers. Shortly after that, he was injured. In 101 games, he hit .321 with 10 homers and 17 stolen bases. Injuries and his attitude are the only things that can hurt him. He should be drafted the 15^th round.

RF - Jody Gerut

Gerut came out of nowhere last year to be one of the best rookies in the league. In just 127 games, he hit .279 with 22 homers and 75 RBI. Watch his shoulder injury in spring training. If he is healthy, he should be drafted, like Bradley, near the 15^th round.

DH - Matt Lawton

Matt Lawton has been hurt for the last two seasons. Last year was a bad year for Matt. Another former Twins player, I really felt bad for him. He hit 15 homers and drove in 53 runs. He walks a lot. He doesn’t strike out much, and he steals bases. If (And it’s a big IF) Lawton can stay healthy and play 150 or more games, Lawton is as good as Bradley or Gerut. However, because of his injury-risk, he should be drafted around the 20^th round.

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good - Bradley and Gerut.

The Bad - Pretty much everything else.

Question Marks - How will the OF situation play out? What about 2B? Will all the young players that got playing time last year show progress? (if so, they could be a fun team to watch)

Detroit Tigers

C - Brandon Inge

Inge is terrible. Don’t even consider drafting him. In his three big league seasons, his career batting average is .198. Ivan Rodriguez  will probably sign with the Tigers in the next week or so. That would certainly be a marked improvement. However, if Pudge signs with the Tigers, don’t expect him to put up typical Pudge numbers. His value in real life, as well as fantasy baseball, will be drastically overrated, due to his playoff performance last year with the Marlins.

1B - Carlos Pena

Hit just .248 last season and struck out way too many times. However, he did hit 18 home runs. Put some better players around him and he could be better. There are so many first basemen though who are far better. Take him only if you forgot to take a first basemen and you’re running out of picks.

2B - Fernando Vina

Vina played in just 61 games with the Cardinals last year because of injury. Even if he is healthy, he’s not a great option at 2B (a weak position in the first place). He could steal 15-20 bases. I would try to find a better 2B, but if you don’t have one after round 25, he could be the best remaining.

3B - Eric Munson

Like Pena, Munson had a low batting average (.240), but did hit 18 home runs and drove in 50 in just 99 games. I don’t see him really getting much better, but if he stays healthy, he could hit 25 homers. 3B is another weak position. Try to get better, but if he is around in the final rounds and you have nothing better, may not be a bad pick.

SS - Carlos Guillen

Guillen comes to Detroit from Seattle. He is a career .264 hitter, which is vastly better than Omar Infante or Ramon Santiago have provided the Tigers the last couple seasons. After the good shortstops get drafted, he is as good as any of the rest. I would take him in the 22^nd - 25^th rounds if I didn’t have another shortstop.

LF - Rondell White

In 2003, White was the Padres All-Star representative before being traded to the Royals for the playoff run. He hit 22 homers and drove in 87 runs in 137 games in total. As always, injuries are the issue with White. He hasn’t played a full season since 1997. So, he is a high-risk, decent reward outfielder. Late-round pick, if at all.

CF - Alex Sanchez/Craig Monroe

If you are in a league that values stolen bases, Alex Sanchez is worth a couple of extra looks. In 2003, he stole 52 bases between the Tigers and the Brewers while hitting .287. If only he would walk more, to get on base, he could be a really valuable fantasy player. I include Craig Monroe here because I don’t know where he will play. Maybe he’ll only be a fourth OF, however, in 128 games last year, he hit 23 home runs and drove in 70 runs. Sanchez should be drafted in the mid-20s, while you will want to wait-and-see on Monroe.

RF - Bobby Higginson

Higginson was a great outfielder for most of the late 1990s. But when the Tigers went bad, Higginson went real bad. Last year, he hit just .230 with 14 homers and 52 RBI in 130 games. He is making huge money, so he really has to play. If the Tigers play better, Higginson would need to be a big part of that. I think he is worth a late-round pick on the chance he comes back and plays well.

DH - Dmitri Young

After missing all but one game in 2002, Dmitri Young had one of the more amazing seasons that I recall. He hit .297 with 29 homers and 85 RBI. Not the greatest of all numbers, but when you consider what he did, compared to the rest of his team, it shows a lot of Young’s character. If the Tigers put some players around him, Young could have a very productive year. I would draft him between rounds 12 and 15.

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good - Dmitri Young. Sanchez stolen bases.

The Bad - Inge. It doesn’t get much worse. They’re the Tigers.

The Question Marks - Will they sign Pudge Rodriguez? Can the veterans they brought in stay healthy and contribute? Can the young guys improve? Can Higginson return to the player he once was?

Kansas City Royals

C - Benito Santiago

In 108 games in 2003, Santiago hit .279 with 11 homers and 56 RBI. Not a bad pickup for the Royals, certainly better than Brent Mayne! I would expect his production to continue to decrease as he will be 38 years old when the seasons starts. If you draft him, wait until late.

1B - Mike Sweeney

Sweeney missed 54 games last year, but still hit .293 with 16 homers and 83 RBI (which would be a good season for a lot of players). If Sweeney is healthy, he is one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball. He hits over .300, with nearly 30 homers and well over 100 RBI. He is worth the injury-risk if he lasts until the 6^th round.

2B - Desi Relaford/Tony Graffanino

Relaford has been a good utility player during his eight big league seasons. But he is a career .250 hitter with little power who certainly won’t play every day. Last year, he did play in 141 games for the Royals, easily his career high. Don’t draft him. Graffanino is another utility-type player. He has never been a starter in his career. He spent the last three full seasons with the White Sox. He will get a lot of playing time with the Royals, but he has never done anything in his 8 big league seasons to think he will suddenly be good, so don’t draft him either.

3B - Joe Randa

I think Joe Randa is really underrated. In his seven-plus seasons in the big leagues, he has hit .286. If he plays every day, he could hit 15 homers and drive in 75-80 runs. I would take him between rounds 18 and 20.

SS - Angel Berroa

You hate to think it, but I can’t help it. I think Angel Berroa could become another victim of the “Sophomore Slump.” He was an older rookie last year, at age 25 (no, not Matsui-old for a rookie!). He did have a great rookie year though, .287 with 17 homers and 73 RBI, with 21 stolen bases. Those are good, second-tier shortstop numbers. Can he do it again? I think Berroa could be drafted between rounds 10 and 12.

LF - Aaron Guiel

The Canadian-born Guiel played in 99 games last year for the Royals. He hit .277 with 15 homers and 52 RBI. He could be a platoon-type of player. Not worth drafting as an outfielder.

CF - Carlos Beltran

Beltran is arguably a top 10 overall pick. He does everything. He is one of the best all-around players in the game. He hits for average (.288 career, .307 in ’03), hits for power (averaged 26 homers in the last 3 years), drives in runs (averaged 103.5 RBI in his four full seasons), and steals bases (averaged over 35 SB the last 3 years, 41 last year in 141 games) at an 88% clip. Grab him near the bottom of the first round, or early in the second round.

RF - Juan Gonzalez

Juan Gonzalez has been pretty easy to project the last few years, and it is probably safe to do the same in 2004. Last year, he hit 24 homers in 82 games. But it was typical Gonzalez. He will play well for awhile, hitting a lot of home runs (especially in Kaufmann Stadium) and everyone will think he is back to his old ways. But, about mid-season, he’ll come down with some mysterious injury and go on the Disabled List. He will probably whine the rest of the season and cause nothing but problems for the Royals (which, as a Twins fan, is fine with me!). So, my advice, draft him if you want in the mid-teen rounds, have him for two months of success, but trade him before the injury!

DH - Ken Harvey/Matt Stairs

As a rookie last year, Harvey hit .266 with 30 doubles, 13 homers and 66 RBI in 135 games. In 121 games for the Pirates in 2003, Stairs hit .292 with 20 home runs and 57 RBI. My guess is that Stairs will get a majority of the at bats at DH, but he will also play some at 1B or in the OF. I personally would not draft either of the two.

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good - Beltran is one of the game’s best! Sweeney, if healthy. Early season Gonzalez.

The Bad - Injury and clubhouse-cancer Gonzalez. 2B situation.

The Question Marks - Health issues for Sweeney and Gonzalez and even Beltran. Can Berroa avoid a sophomore slump? Does Santiago have another year in him?

Minnesota Twins

C - Joe Mauer

AJ Pierzynski is gone, and the Twins are better for it. Baseball’s prized prospect should get the call as the Twins Opening Day catcher. I project that he will hit about .280 with 5 homers and 60 RBI. Not huge numbers, but just a stepping stone for bigger things to come. I do think he will hit a lot of doubles though, so if you are in a league where total bases are important, those will help. There are not a lot of catchers with those types of numbers, so where Mauer is drafted is a huge questions mark. I would think any time after about Round 18 would be about right. If you are in a keeper league, draft him higher.

1B - Doug Mientkiewicz

Which Mientkiewicz will show up in 2004? The one who hit .300 in 2001 and 2003, or the one that hit .261 in 2002? Either way, he will be in a productive part of the lineup, and he does get on base. So he could record lots of runs and some RBI. If he hits 12 homers, be happy. With a good season, I would draft Mientkiewicz between the 15^th and 18^th rounds.

2B - Luis Rivas

I think we pretty much know what Rivas will do. He’ll hit about .260. He’ll hit 6-8 home runs. He won’t score a lot of runs, won’t drive in many, won’t get a lot of extra base hits. He may still 15-20 bases (which is where his value would probably come from).  So, where does that type of player get drafted? Well, get someone else if you can, but he’s a late-round pick who you just hope gives you a little more than the above numbers.

3B - Corey Koskie

Koskie had a bad year last year and still hit .292 with 14 homers and 69 RBI. If (and again, it’s a HUGE IF) he stays healthy for a full season, he could be a star. But injuries have cost him too much time the last couple of seasons. We know he can hit .300. We know he can hit 25 homers. We know he can even steal some bases. The injuries make him risky, but when he is healthy, he’s a top 5 3B in the league. I would draft him between the 10^th and 12^th rounds.

SS - Cristian Guzman

Enigma – Noun meaning ‘one that is puzzling, ambiguous, or inexplicable.’ I think that word perfectly described Cristian Guzman. Who knows what to expect from Cristian Guzman from day-to-day?! I’m sure Ron Gardenhire would love to know. Last year, Guzzy hit .268 with 3 homers and 53 RBI. I know he won’t hit a lot of home runs (which is fine), but I would love to see him approach 15-20 triples again. I don’t expect much though, so I would not consider drafting him until the 20^th round, or later. However, this is a contract year for Guzman, so maybe he’ll come ready to play like an All-Star again. Twins fans can hope!

LF - Shannon Stewart

Shannon Stewart came to the Twins mid-season and altered the direction of the team. OK, he had less to do with it than most fans want to think, but he was good. His numbers (.307, 13, 73) were good, but remarkably similar to his career.  Stewart will probably hit around .300 with 10-15 homers and he’ll probably score around 100 runs. All very good fantasy numbers. I would draft him in about the 10^th round.

CF - Torii Hunter

Hunter really had a bad year last year. However, in that “bad year”, he still hit 26 home runs and drove in 102 runs. His strikeouts (and strikeout rate) actually dropped again in 2003. Hopefully he will continue to develop more plate discipline, and come through a little more often. I think he will do that. I can see him hitting .270 with 30 homers and 110 RBI. If that’s the case, Hunter is worthy of a 6^th-8^th round pick.

RF - Jacque Jones

Jacque Jones is going to be a star. I don’t care if he doesn’t walk. He hits .300. He has some power. He missed 26 games last year (And should have missed twice that many) with a groin injury. That took away a step and a lot of power. Coming back healthy this year, I project that he will again hit over .300 and will hit 30 home runs. So, where would I draft him? Well, he doesn’t have the name as Torii Hunter or maybe even Shannon Stewart, so I think you could steal him after those two are taken. If you can get him in the 12^th round, you should be thrilled!

DH - Matthew Lecroy

In 345 at bats, Lecroy hit 17 home runs and drove in 65 runs while hitting .287. Given 500 at bats, 25 homers is very realistic. I think they will try to give him that many. However, if he struggles early, don’t forget about Justin Morneau. To quote myself again (same quote you have read here before), if given 500 at bats “Morneau could accidentally hit 30 home runs.”

Team Fantasy Summary -

The Good - The OF could be very good.

The Bad - Rivas and Guzman.

The Question Marks - Can Koskie, Jones, and  Mientkiewicz stay healthy? How will Mauer perform? Will Jacque Jones be around?

Well, that is it for Part 1 of my Fantasy Baseball Preview. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. The same format will be used for the rest of the teams in baseball. Please let me know what you think. Any comments or suggestions would be welcomed! E-mail me.
 

TWINS THOUGHTS