Monday,
January 17, 2011
Arbitrary Thoughts
On Sunday, the Twins avoided arbitration with
infielder Alexi Casilla
by agreeing to a 2011 contract worth $865,000. Assuming that Casilla can remain the Twins starter at shortstop or second
base throughout the season, it is a great contract. In the TwinsCentric
Offseason GM Handbook, we projected that he would sign for about
$800,000.
By tomorrow, the Twins will be working with
the agents of five more Twins players who are arbitration-eligible. If you
recall last year, all of the Twins arbitration-eligible players agreed to deals
with the Twins before numbers needed to be officially exchanged. I would
anticipate that a few of the five remaining players could come to an agreement,
but I also think that it is likely we will see some numbers exchanged. Here are
the players:
Glen
Perkins – This one ought to be
interesting. He made about $430,000 when he was in the big leagues in 2010,
which wasn’t too much. No one knows how big of a factor the past issues between
the Twins and Perkins’ camp will play into this. TwinsCentric
projected that he’ll make $800,000 in arbitration. I’d like to think it’ll be
closer to $600,000. This is why I think that we may find out. Seth Guess:
$700,000.
Kevin Slowey – After making
$470,000 in 2010, Slowey is eligible for arbitration
for the first time. He has the win-loss record. He’s got league-average ERA. He
doesn’t walk people. Good strikeout rate. TwinsCentric’s
$2.75 million seems a little bit high, but that’s what guys of this ilk make. I’d
like to see it closer to $2.25 million. Seth’s Guess: $2.4 million.
Francisco
Liriano –
In his first arbitration year last year, he made $1.6 million coming off of a
couple of bad seasons. Now he’s coming off of a terrific season. I mentioned
that I thought a four year, $40 million deal would be market value, and I’m
sure they will have some discussions. But that wouldn’t happen until spring
training begins, so for now it’ll be about putting a 2011 deal in place. TwinsCentric projects $4.5 million, and I fear that may be
a little bit low. Seth’s Guess: $4.5 million, and negotiate later.
Delmon Young – Young finally had a season that many hoped he might have, although
it still produced just an .826 OPS. That said, .298 with 21 homers and 112 RBI will look good to
arbiters. TwinsCentric projects $5.25 million, and
although I think that’s a reasonable amount, I’d fear it could be higher. Seth’s
Guess: $6.2 million.
Matt
Capps – Capps was non-tendered a year
ago by the Pirates and signed for $3.5 million by the Nationals, and as you of
course know, came to the Twins at the July deadline. In his final year of arbitration-eligiblity, the comps for him are all over the place. He
has the big save number from 2010, but if arbitration is based on two years, he
was bad in 2009. TwinsCentric projected $7.5 million.
I HOPE it is lower than that, but we shall see. Seth’s Guess: $6.25 million.
What do you think about it? Feel free to e-mail
me or leave
your comments here.