Friday,
January 14, 2011
Minnesota Twins Top 10 Prospects
Jim Thome is coming
back, and that is a good thing. Joe
Christensen is doing a great job covering it, so be sure to read
his work and comment there (or scroll down to my
quick thoughts on Thome’s return). But here
today, we are going to talk Twins prospects, and hopefully it'll create some
good discussion on Twins minor leaguers. I'll certainly try to answer your
questions if you have any in the comments.
Alright, if you missed prospects 26-50ish, click
here or if you missed 11-25, click
here, or scroll down, but it is time for the
SethSpeaks.net Top Ten Twins Prospects.
At SethSpeaks.net,
I have been posting Top 50 Prospect lists twice a year (and sometimes more
frequently) since 2004. I've been right on a few surprises, and way wrong on
many more. That's the fun thing about prospects and prospect
lists. There are few sure things. You never know. And everyone can have
their own rankings that could be just as accurate in the end (ten years down
the line?) as anyone, even the experts. There is no science behind this,
but I tried to make my list this time around a little bit more scientific.
I am just putting the final touches on the Minnesota
Twins 2011 Prospect Handbook (more information
coming soon), so I have been looking at stats and scouting reports
and more for a few months on all of these guys. Before getting to my Top 50
Twins Prospects, here is some detail on how I approached this
ranking:
I did
something a little bit different in compiling my Top 50 list. I took the entire
list of Twins minor league prospects from the GCL through Rochester, and in an
Excel spreadsheet, I put each name in the first column and each name in the
first row. Then I went through and compared every prospect to every other
prospect, picking which of the two I thought was the better prospect. My ‘vote’
on each was based on a ton of research, stats, scouting reports and more. I
considered which of the two players I would trade if a team said that I could
pick which prospect to send in a potential deal. I compared Aaron Hicks to Kyle
Gibson and Miguel Sano, and also against Matt Schuld
and Matt Trau. I compared Manuel Soliman
to Dan Osterbrock, Joe Benson and Dallas Gallant.
After doing that for every player (which took WAY too long), I added up the
total number of times I selected each player. The player that I chose above all
players obviously ended up with the most points at the end of the day. The one
with the second most votes would be the #2 prospect. And so on. Of course,
there were ties, sometimes three-way ties, which I broke by my head-to-head
results, so to speak. The results were interesting, at least in the middle of
the list, but really throughout. Today I will post my choices for Twins
Prospects #26 through 50 with a brief description. As you would expect, there
was a tie at 50, so in fact, here are prospects 26-51.
As always, your thoughts
and opinions are welcome.
#10 – Oswaldo Arcia – OF – Elizabethton
When
you hit .375/.424/.672 with 21 doubles, seven triples, 14 homers and 51 RBI,
you get noticed, no matter what level it’s at. He led the Appalachian League in
Batting Average, On-Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage. He led the league
in hits (by 16) and RBI. He finished second in home runs and triples. He was
third in doubles and runs scored. Oh, and he’s pretty solid defensively too.
#9 – Adrian
Salcedo – RHP – Ft. Myers
Salcedo will be 19 years old when the 2011 season begins.
Overall, his 2010 numbers don’t stand out, but that’s in part due to jumping up
to Ft. Myers for six starts. He held his own against much older, more
experienced competition. In E-town, he won four games and posted a 3.16 ERA as
a starter. The Twins were cautious with his arm and put him in the bullpen at
the end of the season. Salcedo throws hard and his
stuff is described as “filthy.”
#8 – Ben
Revere – OF – Minnesota
Another year, another .300+ batting average for Ben Revere. He
jumped up to Double-A New Britain and hit .305/.371/.363. He showed his
toughness too, returning less than a month after breaking two orbital bones
when hit in the face by a fastball. He came back, played well, and earned a
September promotion to the Twins. There is no rush to bring him up. He can
still improve his defense, throwing and base running, things that will do him
well over time. In fact, it wouldn’t hurt for him to spend another half-season
in New Britain.
#7 – Angel
Morales – OF – Ft. Myers
Morales
will spend the entire 2011 season at age 21, and yet it will be his fifth minor
league season after the Twins drafted him out of high school in 2007. Although
the strikeouts are still high, his approach at the plate is terrific,
especially after he was moved to the leadoff spot in the Ft. Myers lineup after
a promotion from Beloit. No one questions his power potential. He also stole 29
bases in 2010, second only to Revere’s 36. He’s a good outfielder defensively
as well. He’s got a ways to go, but he’s full of potential.
#6 –
Liam Hendriks – RHP – Ft. Myers
Hendriks made opposing batters look silly all year in 2010.
His 8-4 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 108.2 innings between Beloit
and Ft. Myers were impressive. His 12 walk to 105 strikeout ratio was also
impressive. The only thing that stopped him was an emergency appendectomy that
cost him 4-5 weeks, and an opportunity to represent the Twins and Australia in
the Futures game in Anaheim.
#5 – Alex
Wimmers – RHP – Ft. Myers
Wimmers was the Twins 1st round pick in 2010 out
of THE Ohio State where he had won the past two Big Ten
Pitcher of the Year awards. He’s a very polished starter with three good
pitches. He made four starts for the Miracle after signing, so we shouldn’t
make too much of his 15.2 professional innings in which he went 2-0 with a 0.57
ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and five walks to go with 23 strikeouts. Like their 2010 top
pick, Wimmers could advance quickly in 2011.
#4 – Joe
Benson – OF – New Britain
2010
was an interesting year for the Twins 2nd round pick from 2006. He
started out slow in Double-A, was sent back to Ft.
Myers for a month, and when he came back, he was very good. In all, he hit
.259/.343/.538 with 31 doubles, eight triples, 27 home runs and 19 stolen
bases. He’s got a ton of real, raw power when he makes contact, and he is
nearly as fast as Ben Revere. He was the Twins 2010 Sherry Robertson Award
recipient as the Twins top minor league hitter. He was added to the 40 man
roster and should return to New Britain to start the 2011 season.
#3 – Aaron
Hicks – OF – Beloit
I
so frequently read Twins talk about how disappointing Hicks was in 2010. He hit
.279/.401/.428 with 27 doubles, six triples, and eight home runs. He was a year
younger than the average Midwest League player and performed over 20% better
than average. That’s not to say that there isn’t room for improvement. He wasn’t
as consistent as you’d like, he struggled from the left-side of the plate, and
he’s still got work to do in the field and on the bases. But there is still no
question that Hicks has all the talent in the world, and he can be a very good
all-around player at the big league level. He just needs time and patience.
Comparisons are never fair, or easy, but I think the comparison to Carlos
Beltran is fair for what Hicks’ ceiling could be. A future #2 or #3 hitter, who
can hit .280-.300, get on base 38-40% of the time, hit a lot of doubles, hit
20-25 home runs, steal some bases, drive in and score runs while playing
terrific defense in centerfield or right field.
#2 – Miguel
Sano – 3B/SS – GCL Twins
The
Twins shocked a lot of people late in the 2009 season when the signed Sano to a
$3.15 million signing bonus. The early returns from the 17-year-old in the GCL
in 2010 were impressive. He hit .291/.338/.466 with 14 doubles and four home
runs. He also hit very well in his time in the Dominican Summer League early in
the season. So, why is he ahead of Hicks? First, because it’s my list, and you
can certainly disagree. But second, this guy has amazing power potential. He’s
big, strong and has incredibly quick hands and bat speed. Yes, he has a long
way to go. He’ll have to cut down on his strikeouts. But when talking about
ceiling, Sano’s is as high as it gets. Miguel Cabrera comes to mind. What
position will Sano end up at? He actually primarily played 3B in 2010. Many
think he could be a corner outfielder, and in Baseball America’s prospect
content, John Manuel had him as the Twins 1B by 2015. It is going to be fun
tracking his minor league progress.
#1 – Kyle
Gibson – RHP – Rochester
If
ceiling was the only factor that went into prospect rankings, then Gibson would
probably be fourth on this list (behind at least Hicks and Sano, and maybe even
Benson), but Gibson has a very good likelihood of becoming a terrific major
league pitcher. And that likely will happen sometime in 2011. The Twins top
pick in 2009 didn’t sign until late, so he made his official professional debut
this year, and he was very good. Between Ft. Myers, New Britain and three
starts in Rochester, he went 11-6 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. In 152
innings, he walked just 39 and struck out 126. A ground ball machine when he is
on, Gibson has four big league caliber pitches and the confidence to use them
at any time. He is also a great competitor. I think Gibson will be promoted in
June, and I think he could have a strong impact on the 2011 AL Central race.
So, now you’ve seen it, my Top 50 Twins
prospects. What do you think about it? Feel free to e-mail me or leave
your comments here. I also posted my Top 50 list at the StarTribune.com
TwinsCentric blog, so you can follow
the comments and questions there.