Tuesday,
January 8, 2008
SethSpeaks Hall of Fame Ballot
This afternoon at 1:00 p.m. central time, we will find out who the 2008 Hall of Fame Inductees will be, if the voters elect anyone. I think it is pretty safe to assume that at least one former player will meet the required 75% of the votes, but after that, there is little for certain. In past years, I have had huge postings regarding the Hall of Fame, but this year, for a couple of reasons, I am not going to do that. The primary reason is the frustration with the process. No, I don't have an answer to make it better, but any system that doesn't see that Bert Blyleven is an obvious Hall of Famer is just wrong somehow. Secondly, life just gets in the way sometimes. So, what I am going to do is just walk through the ballot and give you a thought or two on each player, and in the end, I will tell you who I would vote for if I had a ballot.
The Returners
Harold Baines - 2,866 hits. 384 homers. The knees hurt him, and likely his Hall of Fame chances.
Bert Blyleven - like I said, this should be so automatic, and I still have not heard a good reason why he was not elected a half-dozen years ago. Could he have 13 more Wins if he hadn't lost so many 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0 games? Of course.
Dave Concepcion - good player for the Reds for 19 years, but there is no reason for him to be in the Hall of Fame. Unless he was Vizquel-like defensively, and he wasn't, he is not this caliber. But, maybe a "Hall of Very Good" should be created for the guys who stayed on the ballot for all 15 years of eligibility as Concepcion has!
Andre Dawson - I am one who believes that a player does nothing from year to year to better his chances of being a Hall of Famer. But Dawson is a guy who has changed my mind. The more I read about him, the more my opinion is that he should be enshrined, even with that .323 OBP!
Goose Gossage - If Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter are Hall of Famers, it is inexplicable that Gossage isn't. He was every bit as good as them. He should be in because like those two, they were the tops at their role for that phase between when starters went nine innings and starters went five or six innings.
Tommy John - He's got this year and one more to make it... and I think voters should take a look at the his numbers from 1972-1981. Top level pitcher for a decade, plus the 288 wins. Definitely worth consideration, but wouldn't get my vote. Some say that he should be elected because of the surgery with the name after him. My thought? Shouldn't the doctor that did that procedure and invented it be the one recognized?
Don Mattingly - had six great years, hitting for average and power, but then the injuries took over and he was just good for a while. His dominance was a little too short, and his overall just weren't great enough.
Mark McGwire - his candidacy isn't perfect because he wasn't much of a hitter beyond the home runs. But neither was Reggie Jackson or Harmon Killebrew. McGwire's question mark has nothing to do with his numbers though. I'm probably opposite many others on this, but until someone proves to me that McGwire wasn't playing on an even playing field, his numbers get my vote.
Jack Morris - another very solid pitcher for his career, but that OPS+ of 105 does nothing for me. Joe Posnanski's argument against Morris simply solidified my thought that Morris is not a Hall of Famer. One great Game 7 does not a Hall of Fame career make. Most Wins of the 80s? Sure. Best pitcher of the '80s? No.
Dale Murphy - I liked Murphy. Not as much as Claudell Washington, but I knew he was good. He was very good from 1980 through 1987, even won a couple of MVP awards. Then the dramatic fall off in batting average and games played. I appreciate him remaining on the ballot and hope he does each year so that people can talk about him. But he is not a Hall of Fame player.
Dave Parker - He is a guy that I think absolutely gets underrated. I don't know if it was the whole drug thing or what. He was very good in the late '70s and then had two or three really good years in the second half of the '80s. No, not a Hall of Famer, but certainly a great player.
Jim Rice - Here is another candidacy that I don't understand. Some that say he doesn't say that his great years were too short. Well, he was very good from 1975 to 1986, so that isn't a good argument. 1978 through 1983 were his dominant years. Was he feared? Then why wasn't he walked more. He played in a great hitter's ballpark. Less than 2,500 hits and 400 home runs though. He is on the same level, in my mind, as guys like Murphy and Parker and others that were good players, but not great. Hall of Very Good!
Lee Smith - He retired as the all-time Saves leader in baseball history, but people are not sure what to make of that. What is the value of the Save? What constitute dominant closer? I struggle with this too. However, I voted for Smith last year, and I will again this year because like the DH, the closer is a part of baseball and Smith was very good at it for a long time.
Alan Trammell - Very solid player for the Tigers for 20 years. Good batting average (.285), good on-base skills (.352), solid defensive SS, played in some post-seasons, stole a few bases. There really wasn't a weak spot in his game. That said, if a guy is going to be a Hall of Famer, I would want him to be an every day players, and over his 20 seasons, he played in more than 150 games just three times. He played more than 152 games just once. I know some think he is a Hall of Famer, but I think that Lou Whitaker was a better player at another middle infield position. I wasn't planning on doing a lot of numbers, but I feel the need to ask how Lou Whitaker was off the ballot in the first year and yet Alan Trammell gets votes for Hall of Fame induction?! Here are their career numbers:
Alan Trammell Lou Whitaker Games 2293 2390 At Bats 8288 8570 AVG .285 .276 OBP .352 .363 SLG .415 .426 OPS .767 .789 OPS+ 110 116 Hits 2365 2369 Doubles 412 420 Triples 55 65 Home Runs 185 244 RBI 1003 1084 Runs 1231 1386 Stolen Bases 236 143 Walks 850 1197 Strikeouts 874 1099 Rookie of the Year 0 1 All Star Games 6 5 Silver Sluggers (best hitter by position 3 4 Gold Glove ('best' fielder by position) 4 3 Now again, I ask... how is Alan Trammell perennially discussed as a possible Hall of Famer while Lou Whitaker did not get the necessary 5% to even stay on the ballot?
First-Time on the Ballot
Brady Anderson - 50 homers in 1996 is still talked about. It was 26 homers more than in any of his other 14 big league seasons.
Rod Beck - passed away last year. 286 career saves, but he wasn't really a dominant type. A closer would have to be pretty dominant for me to vote for him.
Shawon Dunston - one of my all-time favorites. Loved his cannon arm. I have said other times that if I was a manager, I would hire him as a bench coach. But no, not a Hall of Famer despite a solid 18 year career.
Chuck Finley - I remember him as a guy that had the Twins number (without looking at actual numbers). 200-173 with a 3.85 ERA is nothing to sneeze at!
Travis Fryman - Eight good years in Detroit. Five good years in Cleveland. Two really great years. Fryman was a good middle of the order bat for a dozen years.
Dave Justice - Ten seasons with 20 or more home runs. Seven times he hit between 19 and 21 homers. Great Isolated Discipline throughout career. Deserved recognition. Hall of Fame? No.
Chuck Knoblauch - I know. Twins fans aren't supposed to like him because of how he handled his trade request. However, he was truly a great leadoff hitter and had a little pop. From 1994-1996, he didn't have to take a backseat to anyone. And, he was excellent with the glove... until he went to New York. Knobby is vastly underrated, but no, he isn't a Hall of Famer.
Robb Nen - His final season, 2002, he went 6-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 43 saves. He was a very good, dominant closer for seven years. He was as good as any reliever in the era, but to me, that's not Hall of Fame worthy.
Tim Raines - 2,605 hits. 1,330 walks. Add in hit by pitches and he was on base over 4,000 times in his career. He had a career on base percentage of .385! 808 stolen bases made each of those times an adventure for opposing pitchers and catchers. To me, there is no question that Raines is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and he should get in. I have a feeling that he won't though. Maybe because of his time in Montreal's anonymity. Maybe because he played for so many teams. It's hard to say.
Jose Rijo - He wasn't very good his first four years in the big leagues. Then he went to Cincinnati in 1988 and his ERAs the next six years were 2.39, 2.84, 2.70, 2.51, 2.56 and 2.48. He fought injuries the next two years and still pitched well above league average. He then went from 1995 until a comeback in 2001 without pitching in the big leagues. He came back at the end of that year and had a 2.12 ERA in 17+ innings. He pitched one more year. No, he isn't a Hall of Famer, but this is why these ballots should include all of these guys with 10 or more years of experience; so they are remembered. Rijo was dominant for a six year period!
Todd Stottlemyre - 138-121 with a 4.28 ERA over 15 seasons. Solid. Consistent. ERA between 3.51 and 4.50 ten of those years. But, he also only pitched 200 or more innings four times.
The SethSpeaks Ballot
So, my ballot would consist of votes for:
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich "Goose" Gossage
Mark McGwire
Lee Smith
Tim Raines
Others
Here are just a few links to other sites where they give their thoughts or ballots on the Hall of Fame:
Joe Christensen shares his actual, real-life ballot.
Josh Taylor actually predicts how the vote will turn out tomorrow, to the percentage. Remember, he won the SethSpeaks NFL "Expert" Picks, so he's good at predicting!
As I wrote earlier, Joe Posnanski has been writing about the Hall of Fame the last couple of weeks.
If you want to see how the vote turned out last year, click here.
I knwo that the Hall of Fame vote can really generate a lot of discussion. I hope it does as you know I enjoy that. What do you think of my choices? Who would comprise your ballot? What do you think will happen? And when the announcement is made, let's talk about it here. Please feel free to e-mail me or leave Comments below.