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Friday, January 6, 2006

SethSpeaks 2006

Twins Projections

Good morning everyone!  (for today's posting, I have some tables that get a little wide, so you will likely have to scroll to the left and right to see the whole thing. I apologize for this, but didn't see any way around it at this time. Thanks for understanding.)

I'm not exactly sure what the reaction will be to today's posting. I have been thinking a little about fantasy baseball in recent weeks. It is getting close (ok, it is still about two months away from most drafts, but that's ok). Do you ever go out and buy those fantasy baseball magazines? You spend like $8 to get some information on players that, if you follow baseball like many of us do, you already know 98% of it. If you're like me, the only reason you actually bought these magazines is for the cheat sheets and big lists of names. But as soon as you fork out the money, you realize that there are other sources where you can get these big lists as well, for free.

The interesting things for me though are the sites and stats pages where they try to project what each player will do the following year. No matter how elaborate the formula is that goes into these projections, the fact is that they are all nothing but guesses for what a player will do. It can not factor in injuries or natural baseball adjustments that happen for every player in their careers. For many, age 28 is the best year of their career and they maintain a similar level of performance until they turn 31 or 32. Of course, catchers fall off earlier in most cases. But there are exceptions to every case. There is no way to know that Eric Hinske was going to become a flop after his first season. There is no more reason to assume that Jason Bay was going to become the star that he became in Year #2. I have seen projections that involve so many equations. I have seen projections that give a percentage of increase or decrease based solely on a player's age.

Anyway, that is enough background. I figured that I would try my luck at the projection game. I will take the 2006 Minnesota Twins and try to project how each player will do. What were my projections based on? Well, I used a number of factors to determine the numbers. First, I used their age. Secondly, I looked at past history to get a better gauge of where the player has been. I also then factor in their projected place in the Twins lineup and who will likely hit before and after them. I consider injury history and age to determine how many games they'll play. Where they hit in the lineup to determine at bats, walks and how many Runs and RBI opportunities they will have. And you know what I did last? I just made a part educated, part all-out, guess. I am curious as to how my projections match up with other people's and site's projections for these players.

I'll be honest, I have only seen one projection so far. It was for Joe Mauer and I thought some of the numbers were ridiculously low, so that is what made me try my hand at this. So, if anyone has a site or two where I can find these projections, please send me the link. Thanks! Of course, these numbers are subject to change. For instance, if the Twins do trade for Corey Koskie, it will obviously affect the statistics of Tony Batista and likely Rondell White. If someone gets injured in spring training, that would affect their time as well.

TWINS 2006 HITTERS PROJECTIONS

Let's start with the hitters. I project a primary lineup of:

Shannon Stewart

Luis Castillo

Joe Mauer

Rondell White

Torii Hunter

Justin Morneau

Tony Batista

Michael Cuddyer/Lew Ford/Jason Kubel

Jason Bartlett

I will follow my projections with just a few thoughts:

Pos	Age*	Name	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2B	30	Luis Castillo	142	524	82	156	14	5	3	189	38	58	32	26	14	0.298	0.368	0.361	0.728
1B	24	Justin Morneau	157	573	79	154	32	2	33	289	102	67	132	1	1	0.269	0.345	0.504	0.850
OF	32	Shannon Stewart	129	511	67	147	24	2	9	202	43	42	58	5	3	0.288	0.342	0.395	0.737
OF	30	Torii Hunter	145	549	76	138	28	2	25	245	73	54	111	17	12	0.251	0.318	0.446	0.765
OF/DH	34	Rondell White	149	576	61	165	32	2	22	267	81	44	78	1	1	0.286	0.337	0.464	0.801
3B	32	Tony Batista	151	597	71	137	24	1	26	241	68	22	84	5	5	0.229	0.257	0.404	0.661
C	22	Joe Mauer	135	503	72	157	33	2	15	239	73	71	52	12	3	0.312	0.397	0.475	0.872
SS	26	Jason Bartlett	138	442	57	126	24	6	8	186	43	47	79	17	9	0.285	0.354	0.421	0.775
IF/OF	27	Michael Cuddyer	108	308	38	83	21	1	11	139	35	32	59	4	2	0.269	0.338	0.451	0.790
OF	29	Lew Ford	98	256	33	73	17	3	8	120	19	29	54	10	4	0.285	0.358	0.469	0.827
C	34	Mike Redmond	51	161	21	42	8	0	3	59	18	8	17	0	0	0.261	0.296	0.366	0.662
OF	23	Jason Kubel	54	143	12	44	12	0	5	71	27	22	21	0	1	0.308	0.400	0.497	0.897
IF