Monday, November 17, 2008
Casey as a Bat… for the Twins?
BOOK UPDATE – If you haven’t pre-ordered your copy
(or a copy for that huge Twins fan that is so tough to buy Christmas presents
for) of my soon-to-be-released book, I am taking pre-orders for Minnesota Twins
Prospect Handbook – 2009. If you are looking for information including
pricing, payment and such, please click on
the link. I hope to make it available online right before Thanksgiving.
However, if you would like to pre-order the book, or several copies of the book
(for a discounted price), check out the pre-order details and send me an e-mail.
Again, if there are any retailers (book stores, sports card shops, convenience
stores, etc.), please e-mail me for a pricing plan.
Twins Make Offer to Casey Blake
On Friday, LaVelle E Neal broke the news that the Twins have
prepared paperwork and sent a contract offer to the representatives of free
agent 3B Casey Blake. My initial
thought was, “Here we go again!” Another veteran, likely past
his prime. But I didn’t think that was really fair. What do we know
about Blake, and can he make the Twins better? Would signing him make sense on
some level? Here were some of my thoughts.
·
He is
from Iowa and grew up a Twins fan. Does this mean anything? Not really, unless
along with that comes a willingness to sign a “hometown” discount a la Paul Molitor,
Terry Steinback
and Dave Winfield.
·
He
is a great guy, a great teammate. Again, this is something that the Twins like,
and for good reason.
·
He
was with the Twins organization for several years. Is this good or bad? Well
again, there could be some familiarity with how things are done. The basic
Twins system has not changed much since 1986 when Tom Kelly took over the reigns.
However, 2002 was the last year that Blake spent with the Twins before heading
elsewhere. Michael Cuddyer
is the only Twins player around who played with the Twins at that time. Of
course, Cuddyer’s name is all over rumors now as
well. Oh, and I guess Eddie Guardado would have been a Blake teammate, but it is
quite unlikely that the Twins would bring him back.
·
Blake
is 35 years old. This isn’t a horrible thing. The concern comes in the
contract. Would he be willing to sign a two year contract when rumors indicate
he could get three, if not four?
·
According
to Jeff
Passan’s free agent tracker, Casey Blake is the #22 free agent on
the market. He is the top 3B on the list. Of course, that is what it is.
Remember that Mike Lamb was the #2
3B on the free agent market a year ago, behind only Alex Rodriguez.
·
He
made $6.1 million in 2008. He should expect a raise. My guess is that the first
Twins offer will be more in the range of two years and $14 million with a 2011
option and a $1 million buyout. That won’t do it.
·
I
have heard people say that Blake provides a lot of versatility. He can play 3B,
but also 1B and RF (as well as DH, obviously). A review of Baseball-Reference.com reminded me that he had spent the 2005 and
2006 seasons as Cleveland’s primary RF. In 2008, he played 133 games at 3B and
29 games at 1B. In 2007, he played 145 games at 3B and combined for 19 more
games between 1B and RF. Going back further, he played 292 games at 3B between
2003 and 2004, with 39 at 1B. Versatility is good if crazy events happen in the
game. However, what does it mean for the Twins? He can play 1B… Great! The
Twins have a pretty strong 1B who should be able to man that position at least
155 times during the season. RF? Well, Michael
Cuddyer is still around, and if he is dealt, a
move of Delmon Young back to RF makes some sense,
unless they keep Denard Span over there. In other words, it is
more than unlikely that Blake would see any time in the outfield. DH? I think Jason Kubel
showed enough in 2008 that he is the team’s DH Blake could DH from time to time
against tough lefties. In other words, versatility is a wonderful thing, but in
my mind, it is not a deal breaker.
·
I
am not going to throw a bunch of numbers at you about defense. One, I question
most defensive statistics. I have looked at them, and basically what they say
is that he is about an average defender. Compared to Brian Buscher, he is a bit of an
improvement. Brendan Harris made some great plays at 3B, but his range is
pretty non-existent. So defensively, Blake would be an improvement over a
combination of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher,
but just not that great.
·
So,
the question remains, how much difference would there be between the Buscher/Harris platoon and Casey Blake? Let’s try to see if we can figure it out:
o Casey Blake in 2008 – He went 147-536 (.274/345/.463) with 36
doubles, a triple, 21 homers and 81 RBI. He walked 49 times and struck out 120
times.
o Brian
Buscher
in 2008 (against righties) – He went 55-174 with nine doubles, no triples, four
homers and 40 RBI. He walked 16 times and struck out 30 times.
o Brendan
Harris in 2008 (against
lefties) – He went 40-151 with 14 doubles, a triple, a homer and 14 RBI. He
walked 13 times and struck out 33 times.
o Note – In the platoon, Buscher and Harris would theoretically only bat against
either a lefty or righty. Of course, there would be overlap, but we are
thinking in theory, so bear with me.
o Combined in 2008 (Buscher/Harris)
– 95-325 with 23 doubles, a triple, five homers and 54 RBI. They walked 29
times and struck out 63 times.
o Now, we need to ‘normalize’ the numbers
to assume every day play, which is what Blake would get. In other words. We
need to assume that the Buscher/Harris platoon would
get the same number of at bats as Casey
Blake would get. It would be better to ‘normalize’ to the number of plate
appearances, but using the same number of at bats (536) meant just one
difference in walks, so it is very close.
o The Platoon in 2008-Normalized – 157-536 (.293/.351/.416) with 38
doubles, two triples, eight homers and 89 RBI. They would walk 48 times and
strike out 104 times. (Please note
that these are not official numbers in any way. It doesn’t include things like
HBP or SF, etc, so it is just a number to give an idea. In fact, it is likely
that the OBP would be slightly higher.)
o Looks pretty similar to me. Blake’s OPS
was .808. The Platoon would be .767. That is a 5% difference, with Blake being
better. Of course, the platoon would hit for a higher average with Blake
hitting more home runs, hence the higher slugging percentage. The 21 homers to
just eight homers is noticeable. Blake also strikes
out a lot. Also, do we think that Blake would hit 21 homers for the Twins? As
Joe Christensen noted on his blog, the Metrodome
was the most pitcher-friendly AL stadium in 2008.
·
The
platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher
will make about $850,000 in 2009. Casey
Blake will likely make at least $7 million in 2009.
·
Would
signing Casey Blake make the Twins
better at 3B? I think so. But will it have a significant difference on the 2009
Twins? I really don’t think so.
·
Would
signing Casey Blake keep the Twins
from acquiring a SS that can actually significantly improve their SS production
in 2009? That is the big question. What would signing Casey Blake keep the Twins from doing at other positions?
Arizona Fall League Weekend
Update
·
The Phoenix Desert Dogs played
Friday and Saturday against Mesa. They lost 15-7 on Friday and 8-1 on Saturday.
·
On Friday, Dustin Martin went 1-3 with a walk, his fifth double and his fifth
stolen base. Anthony Slama
pitched a perfect inning. In fact, he needed just three pitches to get all
three outs.
·
On Saturday, Martin went 1-4. Danny Valencia went 0-3.
Venezuelan Winter
League Update
·
After a horrific start, Luke Hughes has been hitting much
better of late. He is now hitting .304/.345/.468 (24-79) with three doubles,
two triples and two homers. He has walked three times and struck out 17 times.
·
Wilson
Ramos has cooled off. He is now hitting .271/.271/.313 (13-48)
with two doubles. He has not walked and struck out eight times.
·
Jose
Mijares has been quite good. He is 1-1 with
five saves and a 0.79 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. In 12 games, he has pitched 11.1
innings. He has walked four and struck out 12.
·
Bobby
Korecky hasn’t. He is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA
and a 1.73 WHIP. In 11 games, he has thrown 15 innings. He has walked six and
struck out 11.
·
One to watch would be Danny Rondon.
He is 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. He has thrown 16.1 innings in 12
games. He has six walks and nine strikeouts. Not great numbers but not that he
pitched for Elizabethton in 2008 whereas Korecky
split time between Rochester and the Twins.
Any thoughts, please e-mail me, or leave
Comments here.